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Summary and extracts
1 Market overview
1.1 Definition and scope of study
Breakfast cereals are an agglomerate of nutrients, mainly cereals such as wheat, oats or corn, with natural or artificial flavors and sugar.
Two types of cereals can be distinguished:
- Ready-to-eat cereals are the most common: they include wheat-based cereals, baby cereals, corn petals and muesli;
- Ready-to-make cereals: mainly oat flakes such as porridge.
The breakfast cereals market consists of two segments: cereals for adults and cereals for children. Each segment has a different underlying dynamics. Nutritional input is particularly important in children's cereals, while dietary and taste characteristics are more relevant in the adult market.
It is estimated that the global cereal market has grown in recent years and will continue to grow at a rate of 3.5% until 2027. The growth of the market is mainly due to the growing demand for convenience foods, the urbanization trend and the growing awareness of the importance of food for health.
In Italy, the market is growing as Italians become more aware of the beneficial effects of having breakfast. In 2018, in fact, 88% of Italians declared to have breakfast and the annual per capita consumption of cereals is 1.6 kg.
The Italian market is very concentrated, with the prevalence of some operators belonging to large international groups, such as Kellogg's and Unilever. The distribution takes place mainly in the large-scale retail trade, where supermarkets represent the most significant market share.
In recent years, the market has seen a trend towards healthiness. In fact, supply has expanded to meet this new demand, producing 145% more fiber-rich cereals and decreasing sodium content by 61%.
1.2 The global market
The global breakfast cereal market has been growing in the past decade and is expected to continue this trend, reaching a value of **.** billion USD in ****.
The market was valued at **.* billion USD in **** and grew to **.* billion USD in ****. In addition to this, it is expected to grow at a ...
1.3 The Italian domestic market
In ****, the Italian market for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals and cereal bars covered a total sales volume of **,*** tonnes, up **% on the previous year, when sales volume amounted to **,*** tonnes. In this context, the market for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals amounted to **,*** tonnes for a value of ***.* million euros, while the volume of ...
1.4 Exports and imports of breakfast cereals
Breakfast cereals are referred to by the UNComtrade database as "food preparation, cereal products" and are associated with the commodity code ******.
The market relies mainly on exports, which in **** amounted to more than ** million USD. Instead, imports were valued at **.* million USD. The coverage rate expresses the importance of exports over ...
1.5 The impact of Covid-19 on breakfast cereal
Contrary to most other goods, breakfast cereals have experienced positive growth in ****.
The strict restrictions imposed by the Italian government forced the population to spend several months in their homes.In this context, a good habit such as breakfast gained attention and value. The impossibility of eating out, the search for ...
2 Demand Analysis
2.1 Italians' breakfast habits
Breakfast has always had a role in the Italian lifestyle: according to Kellog's research in ****, Italy was the first country in Europe in terms of population that has breakfast.
The map below synthesizes the share of the population that has an adequate breakfast every day (***). The whole country shows very high ...
2.2 The role of cereal in Italians' breakfast
According to Unione Food Italiana, bread and toasts with or without jam or honey on top are the still Italians' favorite breakfast item, followed by biscuits and brioches, preferred by **% of the population. This can be explained by the fact that these foods, although less healthy, are part of the Italian ...
2.3 Drivers of the growing demand for cereals
A food that is ready to be eaten
Collaborative millennials now represent the largest demographic in Western labor markets and, thus, have become the catalyst for retailers to change their commercial strategies.
With their busy calendars, these consumers often have a preference for healthy food to eat on the fly, but ...
3 Market structure
3.1 The value chain of the market
The value chain and organization of the market are synthesized below.
3.2 Major players of the market
The major payers of the market are mostly multinationals of the agro-food business. The market is fragmented and highly competitive, as multinational brands such as Nestlè and Kellog's face competition from both self-producing supermarkets, such as Conad and Carrefour and specialized minor stores.
Major players such as Barilla and Cameo (***) play ...
3.3 Organization of cereal processing enterprises
The graph below is a breakdown by legal form of the **** Italian enterprises specialized in cereal processing, the second step in the production of breakfast ready-to-eat cereal.
As the graph shows, the great majority of these kinds of enterprises are constituted by individual entrepreneurs, about **% of the total. Limited liability companies ...
3.4 Distribution channels
The distribution of breakfast cereal takes place mostly through large-scale retail. The graph below provides a breakdown of the traditional distribution of cereal in Italy. Although the data isn't as recent, it can still provide an overview of the traditional distribution of breakfast cereal in the country. As we can see ...
4 Analysis of the offer
4.1 Typologies of breakfast cereal
The different varieties of breakfast cereals can be divided into different sub-segments. First, there are the children's cereals, which are generally very sweet. [***]
Among the cereals for adults, there are those based on muesli, a mixture of oats and other ingredients such as dried fruit or seeds. These are stagnating in ...
4.2 Price of production
The graph below gives an overview of the production prices in the past year, based on the Istat producer price index set in ****=***.
As the data shows, producer's prices have remained quite stable during the lockdown months, in March, April, May, and June ****. However, the complications of the Covid-** pandemic and ...
4.3 New trends
All recent trends in the agro-food industry in the Western world are closely related to the increasing attention consumer have been giving to health-related issues.The sugar-tax, set to be put in place in **** in Italy, is also driving the free-from trend.
Consumption trends have shown how best-selling breakfast cereals for ...
4.4 Average price of breakfast cereals
The average prices for breakfast cereals are synthesized in the table below. The products chosen are the most loved ones by Italians in their categories according to Altro Consumo.
5 Regulation
5.1 Regulation
The Harmonised System is an international nomenclature for the classification of goods. It allows participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis for customs purposes. At the international level, the Harmonised System (***) for the classification of goods is a six-digit code system. [***]
The HS consists of approximately *,*** item/product ...
5.2 Organic label and nutri-score
In order for a brand to obtain the organic label on one of its products, it must meet the following conditions:
At least **% of the product's components come from organic farming in accordance with EU regulations; The product complies with the rules of the official inspection system; The product comes directly ...
6 Positioning of the players
6.1 Segmentation
- Kellogg’s
- Nestlé Italia
- Cameo
- Barilla Group
- Conad
- Carrefour Italia
- Coop
- Jordans
- Esselunga s.p.a
- Lameri
- Colfiorito
- Nestlé Groupe
List of charts presented in this market study
- Taille du marché mondial des céréales pour petit-déjeuner
- Taille du marché national des céréales pour petit-déjeuner et volume des ventes
- Évolution des importations et des exportations de céréales pour petit-déjeuner
- Pays d'origine des importations
- Principales destinations des exportations
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Latest news
Barilla enters the French snack market - 30/08/2024
- Barilla, the world's pasta giant, is entering a new market in France, that of snacks, with Harrys, its French sandwich bread brand, acquired in 2007.
- In France, the group, with sales of 4.7 billion euros, is best known for its pasta products
- In Italy, it is at the head of Mulino Bianco cookies (1.2 billion euros), Italy's leading food brand
- Pasta and sauces account for 60% of sales, and bakery products for 40%.
- 60% of sales are generated outside Italy
- Pasta Group present in over 100 countries
- Sales in France in 2023: 1.7 billion euros.
- Private labels will account for 50% of pasta sales and 40% of sandwich loaf sales in 2023
- 4 Harrys plants, in Châteauroux, Plaine de l'Ain, Vendée and Valenciennes
- The manufacturer's objective is to capture 5% of the French industrial bakery market within three years
- France is the Italian giant's 3rd largest market (15% of sales), after its own country and the United States.
Barilla loses the second round of the cookie war - 02/04/2024
- Start of case: June 2023 - Barilla asks the Court of Brescia to prohibit the sale of nine types of Tedesco and Sapori Artigianali cookies on the grounds of excessive similarity with its own products.
- First degree of judgment: February 2024 - The court partially grants Barilla's requests, prohibiting the sale of certain products and the use of certain packaging due to their similarity to Mulino Bianco's products and packaging.
- Second level of judgment: March 18, 2024 - The Brescia Court dismisses Barilla's complaint and accepts the claims of Tedesco and Sapori Artigianali.
- Arguments in favor of setting aside the judgment:
- Volgarization of shape marks: The shape of the cookies in question is now considered so common that it is no longer distinctive of a particular manufacturer.
- Packaging challenge: Despite the similarity, Tedesco's packaging is not considered likely to create undue confusion or associations with Barilla's due to the prevalence of common elements in the industry.
- Urgency of proceedings: The court rejects Barilla's requested urgency for intervention, noting that Barilla was aware of the sale of the "similar" products as early as 2016.
- Implications for the industry: This case highlights the importance of distinctiveness and originality in product and packaging design in a crowded market. It also shows the legal and commercial challenges of protecting these aspects in competitive environments.
Barilla launches "Accordions": six years of research for the perfect dipping brioche - 26/03/2024
- Research and development period: 6 years, starting in 2018.
- Production site: Melfi, Basilicata.
- Investment: More than 30 million euros over the last three years in the Melfi plant, with investments dedicated to both sustainability and innovation, including the creation of production lines for Pancakes and Fisarmoniche.
- Sugar content: Accordions contain -35% sugar compared to the average of the best-selling snacks.
- Calorie content: 120 kcal/piece.
- Factory production capacity: Maximum capacity 83,000 tons/year.
- Number of employees in Melfi: Over 350.
- Quality controls: Over 5,000 checks on finished products and 200 on raw materials per day.
- Environmental savings over the last 10 years: 40% water savings and 27% reduction in CO2 emissions.
- Total number of Mulino Bianco references: Over 130, including cookies, snacks and breads.
- Italian dippingpreference: 6 out of 10 Italians like to dip snacks or cookies for breakfast.
- Ingredients: No colorants, preservatives or palm oil. Contains 4% fiber.
- Plant size: 202,000 m^2.
Barilla: the pasta champion's anti-MDD plan - 08/03/2024
- Barilla sales in 2021: 4.7 billion euros (+6.5% growth)
- Private labels capture over 50% of the pasta market and 40% of the sandwich bread market. Pasta prices up by more than 11%.
- Barilla sales in France: 630 million euros (+7%), but volumes down 3%.
Barilla intends to maintain its volumes in the face of private labels - 08/03/2024
- World leader in pasta and pesto
- sales of 4.7 billion euros in 2023, up 6.5%, including 630 million euros in France.
- Volumes down 3% in 2023 across the French perimeter.
- Stronger advertising and promotional support for its Barilla and Harrys brands, in the face of private labels which now exceed 50% by volume for pasta and 40% for sandwich loaves.
Nestlé sells its Natur baby food products to FNB - 06/02/2024
- nestlé is the world's number one food company.
- FNB is a French investment fund specializing in small and medium-sized food companies.
- Nestlé is in exclusive negotiations with FNB to sell its infant food business in France.
- The products concerned are NaturNes potties, Babicao and Babivanille infant powders, and the P'tit yogurt range.
- These products are manufactured at the Arches plant.
- Worldwide sales of Nestlé infant formulas rose by more than 10%.
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