The breakfast cereal market - France (2023)

1.2 Steady global growth

Global sales of the breakfast cereals market will amount to $**.* billion in ****, rising to an estimated $** billion in ****. Industry experts anticipate an annual CAGR of *.*% for the period ****-****, to reach ** billion in ****.

Breakfast cereals market value World, ****-****, $ billion Source : The business research company Market trends :

Product innovation: Continued flavor innovation and the inclusion of organic ingredients are driving the market. Adoption of Western Food Models: A growing preference for Western food models is positively influencing demand. Product diversification: Breakfast cereals come in different varieties, offering a diversification of options.

Growth factors :

Changing breakfast habits: Changing breakfast eating habits are contributing to global growth in demand. Demographics of Emerging Economies: Changing demographics in emerging economies are a key driver of growing demand. Penetration of Distribution Channels: Growing demand in supermarkets, e-commerce and convenience stores is driving growth. Innovation opportunities: Growth opportunities lie in continued flavor innovation and the introduction of organic ingredients. Preference for Ready-to-Eat Products: The popularity of ready-to-eat cereals is contributing to market growth [***]

1.3 The French market has seen some growth in value terms in recent years

With estimated sales of *** million euros in ****, the cereals market is set to grow by nearly *.*% in **** in value and *.*% in volume [***]

Breakfast cereals market sales France, ****-***** CAGR (***): +*.*% CAGR (***): +*.*% Source: ****

After declining by *% in volume in ****, the cereals market in France,boosted by the Covid period, returns to stability in ****, now at approximately pre-pandemic levels. However, inflation has become a disruptive factor. For ready-to-eat cereals, inflation fluctuated between +*% and +**% at most, leading to a downmarket shift, albeit less pronounced than in other breakfast categories. The impact of inflation was also seen in the adult cereal segments, where the most highly-valued products, such as light and mueslis, suffered volume losses. Despite a **.*% rise in the price of basics, they remain attractive, as do crunchy nuggets. Efforts by some brands to maintain attractive prices include sugar reductions and health-focused innovations, including environmental certifications. The organic market seems to be holding up well, posting a **.*% increase in value and a *.*% rise in volume in P*. Some brands, such as Bjorg, are reporting dynamic growth, while new brands such as Hoope and Funky Veggie are making inroads with innovative products and short ingredient lists.

1.4 International trade: a slight rise in imports and exports

Foreign trade France, ****-****, in millions of US$ Source: ****

The code used for this section may include more than just breakfast cereals. It is code ****: Cereal products obtained by puffing or roasting (***), pre-cooked or otherwise prepared.

In ****, the French trade balance for code **** showed a deficit of ** million euros. It should be noted that the coverage rate for this year remains close to **.*%, thus characterizing this sector with a low trade balance deficit. However, the trade balance deteriorated by almost ** million euros compared with the previous year, mainly due to a drop in exports.

While the coverage rate (***)**** remains more or less stable over the period studied between **** and ****, at around **%, the balance of trade is expected to remain stable

Spain, Germany and Italy are among France's main trading partners, representing trade worth US$** billion for Spain and US$** billion for Germany and Italy respectively.

Main export destination countries France, **** in millions of US$ Source: ****

france imports most of its cereals from Belgium, Spain and Germany, which together account for almost **% of imports. Main countries of origin of imports France, ****, in millions of US$ Source: ****

2.1 Breakfast demand remains strong in France

Daily breakfast consumption declines with age between * and **. However, this trend seems to reverse after a certain age, with **% of people aged ** and over declaring that they eat breakfast every day.

Breakfast every day France, ****, in

a **** survey conducted by Ifop for the Lavazza brand highlights the breakfast and lunch consumption habits of French employees.

Most often in the morning, on days when you work, what do you do? France, ****, in Source: ****

we note that **% (***) of French employees claimed to eat breakfast in the morning, with **% eating it at home and **% at work. Of the **% who eat breakfast, only **% eat cereals.

As far as children are concerned, we have no more recent data than that for ****. In fact, in ****, **% of children and **% of adults skipped at least one breakfast a week, compared with **% and **% respectively six years earlier. Conversely, only **% of children and **% of adults claim to eat a full breakfast, compared to **% and **% respectively in ****. Breakfast is an increasingly incomplete meal, most often consisting of a drink or a quick snack.

Middle-schoolers and breakfast: **% of schoolchildren eat breakfast every day. However, only **% eat a full breakfast, including a cereal product, a dairy product and a fruit product. Schoolchildren's daily breakfast ...

2.2 Cereal consumption habits vary widely according to consumer age

Cereal consumption among children in ****

In ****, the largest proportion of cereal consumers were children aged ** to **, who accounted for **.*%, with an average consumption of **.* g/d, while children aged * to ** represented **%, with an average consumption of **.* g/d.

Average distribution of daily consumption by place of consumption France, ****, in Source: ****

Overall, all age groups consume cereals for breakfast. Snacks are also in *nd place for the *-** and **-** age groups, while for the **-** age group, other snacks are in *nd place at *.*%.

Cereal consumption among adults

Consumption habits vary greatly depending on the age group in question. According to a study by Kantar Media, on average **% of French people start their day with a hot drink, although this figure drops to **% for **-** year-olds.

The **-** age group is the most likely to eat cereals, particularly in bar form, which they consume outside the home. Today, **% of the French population eat cereals during their first meal of the day, and **% take them with them in bar form.

2.3 Breakfast: Substitutable demand

the [***] article highlights the positive trend in the breakfast sector in France, highlighting a *-point recovery in penetration, largely attributed to teleworking and periods of confinement linked to the Covid-** pandemic. The main challenges facing industry players include the need to continue innovating to win over consumers, to improve recipes and nutritional profiles, and to develop new products. lior recipes and nutritional profiles to display a better Nutri-score, maintain affordability despite inflation andshrinking purchasing power, and boost the visibility of breakfast products through communication. Figures show double-digit value growth in several segments of the category, with overall breakfast sales reaching *.** billion euros, up *.*% by ****. Sustainability, convenience and optimized in-store visibility are also highlighted as important aspects of this positive trend.

Breakfast market sales by product France, ****, million euros and % growth Source: ****

The partial substitutability of breakfast products with each other intensifies competitive activity between brands, with the possibility of consumers switching from one product range to another. Cereals represent only a small part of the breakfast market.

Strongest growth in breakfast value in **** France, ****, in Source: ****

2.4 Trend: organic and healthy products are growing exponentially

Health concerns shape new eating habits

French dietary trends France, ****, percentage Source: ****

the French are increasingly aiming for a healthy, balanced diet, for a variety of reasons (***). In fact, according to the graph above, **% of those questioned say that eating a healthy, balanced diet is a major concern, and **% would like to eat a balanced diet more often.

Concerns about breakfast cereals have increased due to their high sugar content and high degree of processing or treatment. Some French consumers no longer associate breakfast cereals with healthy products, and volume sales have therefore begun to decline, particularly those of children's breakfast cereals. In addition, the large supply of high-quality fresh bread may be perceived as an alternative by parents for their children's breakfast.

The Nutri-score, a tool for changing French consumption habits

In ****, a decree enabled the introduction of a Nutri-score code on product packaging. This Nutri-score informs consumers about the nutritional qualities of a product. Depending on the product, the Nutri-score can vary from A to E, A being the score where the product provides the most nutritional quality, and E being the score where the product provides the least nutritional quality. In France, by ****, **% of products will be labeled ...

2.5 France's favourite breakfast cereal brands

The graph below shows the favorite breakfast cereal brands of the French. The percentages represent the positive responses to the question "Do you like this brand?" for each cookie brand.

Kellogg's is the favorite cereal brand of the French, with almost **% saying they like it. Frosties is the least popular cereal brand, with only **.*% of French people saying they like it.

French people's favorite breakfast cereal brands France, March ****, in Source: ****

The level of appreciation of cereal brands varies considerably according to the gender of respondents. As a general rule, women have a stronger preference for cereal brands than men. This is particularly true of Special K, with a gap of over ** points between men and women Comparison of the level of appreciation of French people's favorite cereal brands according to gender France, March ****, in % Source: ****

The graph below shows that the level of appreciation of different cereal brands decreases with the age of respondents. For example, there is a gap of almost ** points in the rate of appreciation of the Coco Pops brand between respondents aged **-** and those over **. This significant difference can be explained by the fact that Chocapic, Trésor, Miel Pops and Coco Pops are brands ...

3.1 Market value chain and distribution

How cereals are made :

Source: ****

Breakfast cereals are made from cereals, often wheat or rice, produced in France or imported from abroad.

The petals

After the first cooking, the petals are cooked again, in a circuit of hot air to remove all traces of moisture. Once cooled, they are flattened by cylinders, giving them their petal shape. They are then put back into giant ovens for toasting, and finally, if required, they are coated with sugar, chocolate, honey, etc...

Soufflés

The whole beans are steamed at a very high temperature (***) and then subjected to a partial vacuum, so that the air inside the beans pushes against the walls. They are then coated with various ingredients and dried by a stream of hot, dry air.

Bursting

This mainly concerns rice, which is steamed, dried and then laminated: the inner wall is destroyed, but the grains retain their original appearance. They are then toasted, which causes the grains to swell, after which they may be coated.

Extruded products

The manufacturing process is similar to that of puffed cereals, but before being subjected to a partial vacuum, the cereals are transformed into a paste (***).the advantage of this dough is that it can ...

3.2 Stable cereal production, but with an increase in organic production

Stable grain production

NAF code **.**B : "Other grain processing activities" includes the production of groats, meal or pellets, wheat or other cereals, as well as the production of husked, milled or processed rice.it also includes the production of husked, milled or processed rice, but above all the manufacture of puffed, roasted or otherwise processed cereals (***), which is why it's interesting to look at the figures for this activity.

Sales of NAF code **.**B - Other grain processing activities France, **** - ****, in thousands of euros Source: ****

Sales for this activity were *.* million euros in ****, a figure that has been stable for ** years, with even a slight increase of *% compared to ****. We can therefore see that this sector has been stable for many years, and that the health crisis has had no negative impact on it, since sales even rose between **** and ****. The sector's stability is also reflected in the number of employees and companies:

In ****,due to the rise in wheat prices and inflation, the sector's sales increased considerably, as indicated in the section on prices in *.*.

Number of employees and companies in the market:

The number of companies and employees shows minimal variation between **** and ****, highlighting the predominance of incumbent ...

3.3 Main brands on the market

Breakdown of the breakfast cereals market by value France, ****, in percent Source: ****

The breakfast cereal market is dominated by * main players: Kellogg's with **% of market share in ****, followed by Nestlé with a quarter of market share. Two other players also stand out: Jordans and Quaker. between them, these * players accounted for three quarters of the market, leaving only a quarter for the multitude of "Other" brands.

However, these shares may be changing somewhat, since in recent years, the food industry has been challenged by a multitude of ultra-specialized players - the "Others" in the previous chart. These include organic cereal brands, with the rise of numerous organic and French brands on the market, which may be favored by the French, who are increasingly declaring that they are changing their eating habits. These include brands such as Piboom, Bonneterre, Favrichon, Céréco, Bjorg and Snooze. The "Other" category also includes private labels, which are increasingly diversifying their offerings at more affordable prices.

Kellogg's and Nestlé are major groups with several cereal brands. Here is a listing of their breakfast cereal brands:

Kellogg's[***] :

All Bran Coco Pops Extra Frosties Kellog's Kellog's Corn Flakes Honey Pops Rice Krispies Smacks Special K Tré ...

4.1 Cereal composition and typology

Average cereal composition

Source: ****

The different cereals

We saw in *.* that there are different types of cereal: petals, puffs, bursts and extruded products. There are also mueslis and granolas. Mueslis are a mixture of uncooked cereals, mainly oat flakes, with fruit.mueslis are often eaten with milk and/or yoghurt; granolas, on the other hand, are cooked cereals, which add a crunchiness not found in mueslis.

Cereals for children and cereals for adults:

Marketing tends to separate two types of cereal, those for adults and those for children, even though each could consume cereals in the other's category. This separation is based more on "stereotyped" tastes. For adults, you'll find mueslis, oat mixes and simpler cereals like petals, with dark chocolate or dried fruit, for example, as found in Carrefour's "Adult Cereals" category. Cereals such as "Lion", "Trésor" and "Miel pops" can be found in the"Céréales enfants" section of the same chain.

Related product: cereal bars:

Cereal bars are cookies made mainly of agglomerated cereals in the form of a small bar that fits in the hand. There are a multitude of cereal bars, such as Kellogg's Special K bars. This sector has been in decline due ...

4.2 Grain prices

in **** (***), consumer breakfast prices rose by **.*% in less than * year .

This increase is mainly attributed to the war in Ukraine, which has led to higher manufacturing costs for packaging, due to Ukraine's crucial role in European production. In addition, soaring energy costs and difficulties in sourcing rawmaterials led to a sharp rise in the price of cardboard and plastic. In addition to packaging, the manufacture of the products themselves has become more expensive, with a significant rise in the price of wheat and sugar. The consequences of the droughts in the summer of **** have also added to the challenges, affecting the production of coffee, milk in France, and orange juice, the latter also being affected by yellow dragon disease, thus anticipating further price rises in the months ahead.

Consumer Price Index Breakfast cereals France, ****-October ****, Index base *** : **** Source: ****

In ****, the agricultural producer price index recorded a significant increase of around **% compared to ****, which had already recorded an increase of **%, **** however marks the start of a downward trend in. This increase was mainly attributed to soaring grain prices, resulting in higher production costs that were passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Monthly agricultural producer price index (***) - Cereals France, ...

4.3 Nutri-score: a major challenge for cereals, is organic a solution?

Nutri-score: a decisive factor

The availability of the Nutri-score in France, along with product comparison apps such as Yuka, is playing a further role in raising consumer awareness of the low nutritional value of breakfast cereals.

Most organic brands have adopted the Nutri-score, with scores between A and B for the most part; Nestlé has been using it since ****, as has Kellogg's, which started in ****, and yet most children's breakfast cerealales for children's breakfast have a poor nutritional score (***), which has reinforced parents' negative perception that these products are too high in sugar and overly processed.

However, aware of the impact of this Nutri-score on customers' purchasing decisions and their willingness to change their eating habits, manufacturers are changing their recipes to better match demand:

Kellogg's wants to achieve Nutri-scores of A or B for all its products by ****[***]. in ****, **% of Jordans products will be rated A or B[***]. In ****, Nutri-score A and B represented only **% of cereal sales, but the sector is very dynamic, especially in the face of weak growth or even declines in cereals rated C, D or E, according to an analysis by NielsenIQ[***]. Nestlé is revising ** of its recipes to improve its Nutri-score. In just a ...

4.4 More trends and innovations to challenge the market

Eco-packaging:

Packaging is a factor that enables a brand to stand out from the crowd. In fact, eco-packaging helps to attract customers who are concerned about their waste production, especially as most cereals are packaged in a plastic bag that, a priori, cannot be recycled.

French organic cereal brand Snooz offers a plastic-free refill system, with metal boxes and ***% compostable cornstarch-based refills.

Other brands, often organic specialists, offer a bulk system, such as Les Fruits Détendus cereals available from Biocoop, Naturalita or La Vie Claire.

Bjorg, for example, first reduced the size of its packaging by **%, then chose to change the manufacturing process by opting for biosourced packaging made from renewable materials, in part made from plant-based plastic derived mainly from sugar cane. This alternative to fossil fuels reduces CO* emissions[***].

Made in France:

In addition to organic and natural products, the French are paying more attention to where their products come from, a trend that has been accentuated by the health crisis. According to Nestlé's CEO, **-**% of ingredients come from France[***].

Personalization:

Nestlé, with its Fitness cereals, has innovated by offering the Fitness Creator online, which lets you personalize your cereal mix, with over two million possible ...

5.1 World Customs Nomenclature and Harmonized System

The Harmonized System is an international nomenclature for product classification. It enables participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis for customs purposes. At international level, the Harmonized System (***) for the classification of goods is a six-digit code system. [***]

The HS comprises around *,*** item/product descriptions, which appear as headings and subheadings, divided into ** chapters, grouped into ** sections. The six digits can be divided into three parts. The first two digits (***).

The Harmonized System was introduced in **** and has been adopted by most of the world's countries. It has undergone several changes in product classification. These changes are called revisions and came into force in ****, ****, ****, **** and ****. Detailed changes to each HS nomenclature are available on the links below.

To compile the foreign trade and market calculation statistics for this study, we have selected the following fields:

For foreign trade[***]

**** Puffed or roasted cereal products (***), pre-cooked or otherwise prepared.

5.2 Organic label and nutri-score

For a brand to obtain the organic label on one of its products, it must meet the following conditions:

at least **% of the product's components come from organic farming in accordance with EU regulations; The product complies with the rules of the official inspection system; The product comes directly from the farmer or food processor in sealed packaging; The product bears the name of the producing farmer or food processor or distributor and the name or code of the inspection body.

In the European Union, the first regulation concerning organic farming came into force in **** (***). The new EU organic logo came into force on February *, ****.

The Nutri-Score summarizes a product's nutritional value in a single letter - from A (***).

This overall score includes positive parameters such as fiber, protein, fruit and nuts, as well as negative parameters such as kilocalories, saturated fatty acids, sugar and salt.

At a time when breakfast cereals are accused of containing elements that are too sweet for children, the signals sent by this score can prove decisive in the act of purchase.

6.1 Segmentation

• Kellogg’s
• Bjorg (Ecotone)
• Jordans
• Nestlé Groupe
• Quaker Oats Company (Pepsico Group)
• Chabrior (ITM Intermarché)
• General Mills
• Grillon d'Or
• Joseph Favrichon
• La Vie Claire
• Terres et Cereales (Céréceco)
• Verival
• Dailycer
• Céréco
• Céréaliste
• Cereal House
• Allo Petit Déjeuner - Food & Co