The air conditioning market - France (2024)

1.2 A dynamic global market

The global air-conditioning market is showing steady and significant growth, rising from ***.** billion USD in **** to ***.** billion USD in ****, at a CAGR of *.**%. This increase reflects growing demand, probably due to urbanization, climate change and rising living standards.

Global air conditioning market World, ****-****, billion USD Source: ****

Air conditioning systems are ubiquitous, although affordability of environmentally optimized products remains a challenge in developing countries. In addition, economic growth in emerging markets continues to accelerate, and demand for air conditioning is set to grow steadily over the coming years. The market should also be boosted by factors such as promising growth in the construction and tourism sectors. Population growth in certain regions of the world is also expected to have a positive impact on residential and commercial construction, and thus increase demand for air-conditioning systems.

Analysis of the geographical breakdown of supply and demand for air conditioners in **** reveals a marked concentration of production in China (***). This disparity underlines a global dependence on Chinese production, despite diversified demand worldwide. Supply distribution is relatively centralized, while demand is more dispersed, which could pose logistical and supply chain challenges. The sum of all Asian countries represents almost two-thirds of global demand, which illustrates their ...

1.3 French markets for air conditioning and heat pump manufacturing and installation are growing

Growth in the air-conditioning equipment manufacturing market

The air-conditioning market is recorded in the INSEE nomenclature under NAF code "**.**Z Marché de la fabrication d'équipements aérauliques et frigorifiques industriels", which covers the manufacture of the following items:

industrial refrigeration equipment air-conditioning machines and appliances fans for non-domestic use heat exchangers air or gas liquefiers air or gas filtering or dedusting equipment attic fans

The market for heating and air-conditioning equipment is growing rapidly, increasing by **% between **** and ****. This growth can be explained not only by demand for new buildings, but also by the recurrence of extreme heat events, which are prompting households and businesses to purchase air-conditioning equipment. A final driver may also be the growing technological complexity of the equipment installed, which requires more skilled labor and therefore higher costs.

Market for the manufacture of industrial air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment (***) France, ****-****, in billions of euros Source: ****

Growth in the air-conditioning market

The air-conditioning market is recorded in the INSEE nomenclature under NAF code "**.**B Travaux d'installation d'équipements thermiques et de climatisation", which covers the installation of the following components in buildings or other construction projects:

heating systems (***) boilers, cooling towers non-electric solar energy collectors ventilation and ...

1.4 A resolutely negative trade balance

The customs code used here is ****:"Air-conditioning machines and appliances incorporating a motor-driven fan and devices for modifying temperature and humidity, including those in which the degree of humidity is not separately adjustable, and parts thereof".

The French trade balance for air conditioners shows a growing deficit from **** to ****, with imports rising faster than exports. The negative trade balance worsens from -***.* million USD in **** to -****.* million USD in ****, underlining a growing dependence on imports.

French trade balance (***) World, ****, in millions of USD Source: ****

Exports

French air conditioner exports in **** are heavily concentrated in Europe, with Germany in the lead (***). Dependence on European markets is notable, while exports to more diversified markets remain limited, accounting for just **. *% of the total.

Air conditioner export destinations World, ****, in Source: ****

Imports

French imports of air conditioners in **** show significant geographical diversification, with China (***) indicates vulnerability to regional disruptions, while the rest of the world accounts for only **.*% of total imports.

Origin of French air conditioner imports World, ****, as % of total Source: ****

2.1 The building market drives demand for air conditioners

The volatility in the number of residential and multi-family housing units built, and the overall long-term downward trend, have a direct and negative impact on the air-conditioning market. The structural decline in the number of units built is reducing demand for air-conditioning systems, putting pressure on suppliers. Companies in the air-conditioning sector are faced with a shrinking order book, which can compromise their profitability and their ability to maintain business at an optimal level. In addition, the volatility of monthly figures makes long-term planning and resource management difficult for suppliers, increasing uncertainty and risk in this sector.

Non-residential premises

Floor area of non-residential premises under construction (***) France, **** - ****, in millions of square meters Source: Insee, Insee *first * months of ****, over ** sliding months

Non-residential floor area under construction (***) France, **** - ****, in millions of square meters Source: Insee, Insee *the term "non-residential premises" includes premises for public services or public interest, transport, education-research, social action, special works, health, education and social services, etc.health, culture and leisure, hotel accommodation, offices, crafts, industry, commerce, farming and forestry, and warehouses

Over the period **** to ****, a downward trend is discernible in non-residential construction in France, with building permits and housing starts in decline.

Focusing on data ...

2.2 A mixed picture despite rising demand

Despite the rise in demand, air conditioners have an increasingly negative image due to the climate emergency, which is calling for a reduction in the use of air conditioners. Indeed, **% of French people say they'd rather suffer in the heat than install an air conditioner that consumes too much energy.

however, * out of ** French people consider it important to install air conditioning for a number of reasons:

Why is it important to install air conditioning? France, ****, in percent Source: ****

Why don't you have an air conditioner? France, ****, in percent Source: ****

2.3 A market buoyed by heat waves in France, but subject to the cyclical nature of climatic hazards

According to Le Parisien, the sale of air conditioners in France is correlated with the explosion of heat waves in France during the summer months: "since the major heatwave of ****, there has been an explosion in demand from private individuals", explained the manager of Clim Denfert. This echoes the catastrophic human toll and the growing awareness of the need for frail people to be protected against the multiplication of heatwaves.

Poll: How intensely do you feel the heat? France, ****, in Source: ****

Seasonality of heatwaves in question

Google Trends also shows that French interest in air conditioners is logically linked to the different seasons. In fact, the number of Google searches for the term "air conditioner" is highly cyclical, increasing sharply during the hottest months of the year, as can be seen in the graph below.

Google Trends results for the term "Air conditioner" France, ****-****, Google index Source: ****

Note: the graph above represents the proportion of searches for a given keyword in a specific region and for a specific period, compared with the time when the rate of use of this keyword was highest (***). Thus, a value of ** means that the keyword was used half as much in the region concerned, ...

2.4 Price and environmental constraints hold back growth in the air-conditioning market

According to PositivR, France has one of the lowest air conditioning equipment rates in the world, with just *% of households equipped in ****. There are several reasons for this trend:

Economic and ecological considerations: Many French people avoid air conditioning to save energy and because of environmental concerns. Air conditioning is expensive to buy (***) and in terms of energy consumption, producing more heat than it removes. Cultural skepticism: A large proportion of the French population, as well as Europeans in general, regard air conditioning as unhealthy. According to a **** survey, **% of French people do not want to install air-conditioning despite increasing heatwaves. Environmental awareness: Environmental concerns are high, with **% of French people refusing air conditioning in order to reduce CO* emissions. In ****, air conditioning accounted for some *,*** million tonnes of CO*, almost as much as South and Central America's emissions in ****.

Environmental awareness therefore appears to be one of the main drivers, but there are others to consider too.

Poll: Why don't you install an air conditioner in your home? France, ****, in Source: ****

In response to heat waves, the majority of French people opt for a simple fan (***).

The OpinionWay survey for France Energie reveals that **% of French people want to reduce ...

3.1 Value chain and production

French production of air-conditioning machines and appliances:

The category of wall or window-mounted air-conditioning machines and appliances, comprising monobloc or split-system units , has not been taken into account due to the weakness of French production in this segment.

3.2 A booming market

The market for heating and air-conditioning equipment continues to expand year after year. Indeed, the number of establishments and the number of employees increased by **% and **% respectively compared to ****. This shows the appeal of this market, with many new companies being set up every year to meet growing demand. It is therefore a dynamic sector that creates jobs.

establishments and workforce in heating and air-conditioning installation work France, ****-****, in thousands Source: ****

Logically enough, the Île-de-France region leads the way in terms of the number of people employed in heating and air-conditioning work, with **% of the national total. It is followed by the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, also very important in terms of economic and demographic weight (***). It's clear that the number of employees in this market is highly dependent on the economic and demographic weight of the target towns and regions. To set up successfully, a company must therefore ensure that it reaches a sufficiently large urban area.

Source: ****

3.3 Segmentation of the air conditioning and heat pump markets

Growth in the commercial customer segment, thanks to DRV and chiller systems

In ****, the commercial customer market was driven by the DRV segment, with over **,*** units installed and growth of *.*% over the year, according to Uniclima.

Growth in the commercial air-conditioning market France, ****-****, in number of units sold Source: ****

According to Uniclima, "chillers", which are liquid-cooled air conditioners, grew by +*% in ****: the technology that drove this segment at the time was water-cooled condensation, with *.*% growth.

Market trends by technology France, ****-****, in units sold Source: ****

A heat pump market segmented between water-source aerothermal systems, geothermal systems, thermodynamic water heaters and air-source aerothermal systems

Breakdown of heat pump volumes France, ****, in Source: ****

evolution of heat pump segments France, ****-****, in thousands Source: ****

The dominant segment is air-to-air heat pumps (***), driven by machines with capacities below **.* kW, which corresponds to the residential and small tertiary markets. It has seen further growth of over **% between **** and ****.

The second most represented segment is air-to-water heat pumps (***). This segment grew by -**.*% in ****, after recording the strongest increase the year before. The number of air-to-water heat pump installations has more than doubled in the space of three years. This is largely due to government ...

3.4 Digitalization and direct and indirect market sales channels

Digitalization

Leading manufacturers in the market include Groupe Atlantic, Ariston Thermo, BDR Thermea, Bosch, UTC, Vaillant Group, Viessmann, Systemair and Lennox International.what's more, the production process is becoming increasingly digitalized, with growing use of digital tools to design heat pumps via preliminary modeling, manage production equipment remotely and facilitate installation.

Sales channels

There are two distribution channels for heat pumps, radiators and boilers. Equipment manufacturers can choose between direct and indirect sales:

Direct sales: manufacturers' sales subsidiaries sell directly to building professionals, who in turn sell heat pumps to potential customers (***). Indirect sales: dealers buy heat pumps directly from manufacturers and then sell them to building professionals.

Generally speaking, heating appliances such as heat pumps can be purchased in physical stores, online or from the manufacturer. They are installed by a heating engineer.

3.5 The development of cooling networks

Cooling networks are a fast-growing alternative to traditional air conditioning. For the time being, they mainly serve tertiary sector buildings (***) and, to a marginal extent, residential buildings. They offer a number of advantages that should increase their use in the future:

Energy benefits: shared cooling in dense urban environments Environmental and health benefits: refrigerant management helps to combat climate change and urban heat islands Long-term performance control: equipped with appropriate instrumentation and a data acquisition system for continuous monitoring and control User comfort and safety: invisible, silent and maintained by the network operator, not the user Urban planning and added value for buildings: they contribute to urban planning and are an asset for the community.

Targeted development of cooling networks France, ****-****, in TWh Source: ****

The multi-annual energy program (***) of April **** set specific development targets for renewable cooling, and forecasts a tripling of deliveries by ****. The graph above shows the planned development trajectory, with milestones in **** and ****.

Île-de-France dominated the regional distribution of cooling networks

Source: ****

4.1 Three distinct heat pump price ranges

As mentioned above, there are a number of different different heat pump models :

The traditional air-to-air aerothermal heat pump (***) and transfer it to another space. This type of heat pump is easy to install and integrates perfectly with traditional heating systems. Prices for this product range from €*,*** to €**,***, including installation. According to aDEMEa suitable order of magnitude would be €**,*** before tax. Geothermal heat pumps, which convert energy drawn from the ground. This model is suitable for low-temperature radiators and underfloor heating. Prices for this product range from €*,*** to €**,***, including installation. Hydrothermal heat pumps, which convert energy drawn from groundwater. This is the top-of-the-range product range, and the most efficient thanks to the stability of the water temperature in the water table. Product prices range from €**,*** to €**,***, including installation.

to these different purchase and installation prices must be added the cost of operation, which according to le Figaro varies from €* to €* per square meter per year (***).

4.2 Slightly decreasing prices, but with variations between ranges

According to Le Parisien, a basic air conditioner costs €*** in ****. This model plugs into the mains and needs to be located near a window to discharge hot air to the outside via a hose.

According to the same source, a silent mobile air conditioner costs between €*** and €*,***. These models are equipped with a condensing system to be placed outside the home. Fixed air conditioners, according to the same source, cost €*,*** per room: for a three-bedroom home with these units in every room, the price would be €**,***.

According to INSEE, consumer prices for air conditioning and heating appliances in France have fallen by more than *% since ****. This drop even reached *% in May ****, before a gradual rise in the price of this type of appliance.

Consumer price index for heating and air-conditioning appliances France, September ****-September ****, base **** Source: ****

Innovations that could change the face of the market in the future

According to Cache Climatisation, connected air conditioners make it possible to control the appliance remotely via a cell phone and wifi. The phone application replaces the traditional remote control and allows the appliance to be controlled by voice too. This allows users to enhance their comfort of use with more powerful programming options. ...

5.1 A highly regulated market

A market subject to European directives

In ****, new European eco-design and energy labeling directives were implemented (***).

The European eco-design directive covers all energy-using products, to encourage consumers to buy more energy-efficient appliances. It sets out a list of criteria to be met when purchasing a product to ensure that it is environmentally friendly.

The Energy Labeling Directive deals with energy labels, listing the appliances to be labeled and their performance rating (***).

Financing assistance for heat pumps

First of all, any purchase of an air-to-water heat pump qualifies for a **% CITE (***) tax reduction. However, since ****, air-to-air heat pumps are no longer eligible for the energy transition tax credit.

What's more, according to Le Figaro, a reduced VAT rate of *.*% is available for homes over two years old wishing to equip and install a heat pump. In addition, the zero-rate eco-loan allows you to borrow €**,*** interest-free if the home was built before ****, with a view to energy renovation.

The sector is set to be boosted by the new RE****, which aims to reduce the carbon impact of buildings, continue to improve their energy performance and ensure that they stay cool during scorching summers. [***]

Financing air conditioning

The tertiary sector decree resulting from the ...

6.1 Market segmentation

• Ariston Thermo
• BDR Thermea (De Dietrich, Remea, Baxi)
• Daikin (France)
• Systemair
• Lennox International
• Saint-Gobain Quartz
• Rexel
• Comafranc
• Richardson
• Hervé Thermique groupe
• Atlantic Groupe
• Vaillant Group (Saunier Duval)
• Carrier Global
• Airwell (Systemair Groupe)
• Systemair Groupe
• Viessmann (France)
• Airvance
• Mitsubishi Electric France
• Carrier Refrigeration France
• LG Electronics France
• Frisquet
• Idex
• Soler & Palau