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Summary of our market study
The global heat pump market is valued at over 6 billion dollars
The French market is expanding rapidly and is Europe's leading market.
The value of heat pump production in the EU has almost doubled to over 3 billion euros.
In France, the value of production exceeds 600 million euros. Its growth coincides with growing environmental concerns and escalating energy costs.
While sales of geothermal heat pumps have fallen, sales of aerothermal heat pumps have more than doubled to over 1 million units, mainly air-to-air models.
The sector is innovating with the arrival of connected and hybrid heat pumps.
France has a trade surplus in heat pumps.
The sector counts over 13,000 companies and employs over 110,000 people.
Demand for heat pumpsis mainly influenced by the cost of domestic heating energy. 80% of French people keep a close eye on their heating consumption. Air-to-water heat pumps and ground-source heat pumps cost around 8.67 and 7.49 euro cents per kW respectively.
Heat pump systems are considered better than individual electric heating solutions by 80% of French people.
Various government financial incentives, such as energy cheques, tax credits for low-income households and a bonus for replacing oil-fired heating systems with renewable alternatives, have been introduced to stimulate demand.
Players in the heat pump sector
- Groupe Atlantic is a renowned French manufacturer
- Ariston Thermo, a key player in the global heat pump market
- BDR Thermea Group is a Dutch company with a strong presence in the heat pump sector.
- Bosch offers a range of heat pumps
- Vaillant Group and Viessmann, German companies with a rich heritage in the heating, ventilation and air-conditioning industry.
- Other major players include Systemair and Lennox International
- UTC (United Technologies Corporation) offers a complete range of heat pump systems under various brand names
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Summary and extracts
1 Market overview
1.1 Market definition and presentation
Heat pumps are an ecological and economical solution for heating and cooling your home. They are based on a thermodynamic system that transforms energy from a cold environment into heat for the space to be heated.
There are several different types of heat pump, with different mechanisms:
- traditional air-to-air aerothermal
- geothermal (transforms energy drawn from the ground)
- hydrothermal (transforms energy drawn from groundwater).
The global heat pump market is booming. Estimated at $68.71 billion in 2024, it should reach $109.66 billion by 2029, recording a CAGR of 9.8% over the period 2024-2029. Similarly, the French heat pump market is experiencing very strong growth, making it the European market leader.
Heat pumps are not only used in homes and existing corporate offices, but are also one of the preferred systems in new-build and renovation projects, after wood-burning inserts and stoves. Heat pumps will account for a growing share of renewable energy consumption in France.
Air-to-air and air-to-water hydrothermal heat pumps are the fastest-growing segments, while geothermal heat pumps are in decline.
The market is largely influenced by growing ecological concerns, as well as the ever-increasing cost of energy to heat homes. The sector is also largely dependent on the public sphere and policies that can stimulate the use of more environmentally-friendly energy solutions.
Innovation also represents a real growth driver for the market. with a renewed, ever more connected and intelligent offering, heat pumps should be able to manage their energy consumption levels even more precisely and appropriately, an economic as well as an ecological advantage.
1.2 The European market
We base our analysis on data supplied by Eurostat using the code ********, which corresponds to the following heading: "Heat pumps (***)"
The value of heat pump production has been growing rapidly over the last ten years, almost tripling from *.*** billion euros in **** to *.* billion euros in ****. Between **** and **** , growth is set to soar by **%.
Value of heat pump production European Union, **** to ****, in millions of euros Source: ****
A breakdown of the countries with the highest heat pump production values in **** gives us the following graph, which shows that France and Sweden alone account for almost **% of European production value.
Breakdown of heat pump production value European Union, ****, in percent Source: ****
1.3 The domestic market
The value of French heat pump production has risen sharply over the past decade, from €***.* million in **** to €***.* million in ****, an increase of ***.*%, to almost double to €*,*** billion in ****.
Value of heat pump production France, **** to ****, in millions of euros Source: ****
Ground-source heat pumps
The number of sales of geothermal heat pumps had been falling steadily since ****, whether water/water or ground-linked heat pumps. From *,*** sales in **** to *,*** in **** (***) had not occurred since ****, and we are now approaching **** levels.
Such an increase is driven by the dynamism of renewable equipment, and reinforced by more sustained communication than usual, notably with the announcement of a national plan to develop surface geothermal energy.
Number of geothermal heat pumps sold France, **** to ****, in units Source: ****
The breakdown between ground-to-soil, ground-to-water and brine-to-water heat pumps (***) has been relatively stable since ****.
Aerothermal heat pumps
In contrast to geothermal heat pumps, sales of aerothermal heat pumps have been growing strongly since ****, with an increase of ***% in * years. In ****, they reached *,***,*** sales, three-quarters (***) of which were air-to-air heat pumps.
Number of sales of air-source heat pumps France, **** to ****, in units Source: ****
1.4 Balance of trade
We base our analysis on UN Comtrade data, using HS code ******, which corresponds to "Heat pumps (***)".
We can see that France has had a surplus balance for the last * years, even if this has fallen sharply since ****.
The value of exports is fairly stable at around $*** million (***). Imports, on the other hand, are growing strongly, with an increase of ***% since ****.
Heat pump trade balance France, **** to ****, in millions of dollars Source: ****
top five countries of origin accounting for over **% of total imports
Germany, Italy and China are the main suppliers
Main countries of origin for heat pumps France, ****, in percent Source: ****
Exports, meanwhile, are extremely fragmented, with the top five heat pump destination countries accounting for just **% of the total, led by Germany with over **% of exports.
Main heat pump destination countries France, ****, in percent Source: ****
2 Demand analysis
2.1 The main determinants of demand
In ****, the * main factors affecting the market are :
Value for money Future prospects for heat pumps, Thermal efficiency and comfort, Ecological concerns,
The French have a very good image of air-to-water heat pumps France, ****, %, French people have a very good image of air-to-water heat pumps BVA-xsight
Value for money
The French are very attentive to the amount of their electricity bill. As the **** BVA study for Foncia below shows, **% of French people said they regularly check their heating consumption. Only *% never look at it[***].
French people's vigilance on heating consumption France, ****, % Source: ****
According to Insee, **% of French households would be in a situation of energy vulnerability for their housing. In the absence of income, the trade-off between heating and other types of consumption would be systematic. These households are mainly located far from urban centers (***), and are mainly made up of single people and/or those under **. These households are particularly sensitive to energy costs and monthly heating consumption. [***]
Economic and financial motivations explain the French dislike of individual electric heating, as shown in the graph below, which is the most expensive. In contrast to individual electric heating, heat pump heating has a very low dissatisfaction rate.According to a BVA ...
2.2 Heating consumption in the commercial sector
In ****, total heating consumption in the tertiary sector stood at ** TWh, driven in particular by offices (***). On average, heating accounted for **% of the sector's energy consumption, including nearly **% for the education sector.
Annual tertiary sector heating consumption by branch (***) France, ****, in Twh Source: ****
Share of heating in total energy consumption by sector France, ****, in Source : CEREN Offices accounted for **% of heated surface area in the tertiary sector in the same year, retail **% and education **%.
Heated surface area in the service sector by type of surface area France, ****, in Source: ****
Finally, gas remains the most widely used energy for heating in the tertiary sector, accounting for **% of total energy consumption for heating in the sector, far ahead of fuel oil (***), which is showing very strong growth of +** points compared to ****.
Heating consumption of tertiary sites by energy type France, ****, as % of total Source : CEREN Furthermore, according to energie.gouv, the tertiary sector as a whole will have reduced its gas and electricity consumptionby **% during the winter of ****-****.
3 Market structure
3.1 Number of establishments and employees
We rely on Urssaf data using code ****B, which corresponds to the following definition "Travaux d'installation d'équipements thermiques et de climatisation", which goes beyond heat pumps but gives us an insight into the evolution of the market.
The number of companies and employees in this sector has seen two distinct trends over the past decade: a decline from **** to ****, and an increase since ****. In ****, there will be **,*** companies and ***,*** employees.
Number of companies and employees France, **** to ****, in thousands Source: ****
The main producers on the market are:
Atlantic Group; Ariston Thermo ; BDR Thermea ; Bosch, UTC ; Vaillant Group ; Viessmann ; Systemair ; Lennox International.
What's more, the production process is becoming increasingly digitalized, with growing use of digital tools to design heat pumps via preliminary modeling, manage production equipment remotely and facilitate installation.
3.2 How a heat pump works
The table below summarizes how a heat pump works.
3.3 Geographical distribution of plants
The map below shows the geographical distribution of establishments with NAF code "**.**B: Travaux d'installation d'équipements thermiques et de climatisation", which again goes beyond the heat pump market, but gives an idea of the geographical distribution.
Source: ****
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Brittany (***).
Main regions for geothermal heat pump sales France, ****, in percent Source: ****
Sales of aerothermal heat pumps are slightly more fragmented. The Auvergne Rhône-Alpes, Occitanie, PACA and Ile-de-Frances regionslead the way with **%, **%, **% and **% respectively.
Main regions for sales of aerothermal heat pumps France, ****, in percent Source: ****
3.4 Distribution by power and distribution channel
The graph below shows the breakdown of geothermal heat pump sales by power rating. Power ratings between * kW and ** kW, and between ** kW and ** kW, will have an almost equal share of the market in ****, at around **%. Despite this, there will be a drop of * percentage points in the first segment compared with ****.
Geothermal heat pumps by capacity France, ****, in percent Source: ****
As for the breakdown of sales of air-source heat pumps by power rating, in ****, heat pumps with ratings below * kW will account for almost half of all sales (***), up * percentage points on ****.
Sales of air-source heat pumps by power rating France, ****, in percent Source: ****
Distribution channels
As with radiators and boilers, there are two distribution channels for heat pumps. Equipment manufacturers can opt for either direct or indirect sales:
Direct sales : manufacturers' sales subsidiaries sell directly to building professionals, who in turn sell heat pumps to potential customers (***). Indirect sales: dealers buy heat pumps directly from manufacturers and then sell them to building professionals.
Generally speaking, heating appliances such as heat pumps can be purchased in physical stores, online or even from the manufacturer. They are then installed by a heating engineer.
4 Offer analysis
4.1 Product typology
As previously stated, there are a number of different heat pump models. Heat pumps are distinguished according to three criteria: the energy source, the thermal diffusion system, and the energy source used.
Aerothermal heat pumps
The traditional air-to-air aerothermal heat pump, which transforms the air in one space to heat it and transfer it to another space. This type of heat pump is easy to install and integrates perfectly with traditional heating systems.
Geothermal heat pumps
The geothermal heat pump transforms energy drawn from the ground. This model is suitable for low-temperature radiators and underfloor heating. However, geothermal heat pumps require the installation of a large geothermal probe (***).
Hydrothermal heat pumps
Hydrothermal heat pumps convert energy drawn from groundwater. This is the top-of-the-range, high-performance product range, thanks to the stability of the water temperature in the water table.
Source: ****
4.2 An innovative market
The graph below represents the proportion of searches for a given keyword́ in France over the last * years, compared to when the rate of use of this keyword́ was highest (***). Thus, a value of ** means that the keyword has been used less often in France, and a value of * means that the data for this keyword is insufficient.
It's worth noting that this topic is of growing interest to the French. A Google Trends search on the term "pompe à chaleur" indicates that interest in this search in France has been rising slightly since ****, and rising sharply since early ****, in response to the government's announcements on ecological transition.
trends in interest in "Heat pump" research France, ****-**** Source: ****
In terms of innovation, market players are making numerous efforts to improve the product and design more efficient, environmentally-friendly appliances.
First of all, heat pumps will be increasingly connected in the future. The boom in connected objects is leading to the emergence of new types of heating systems. Connected heat pumps, which can be managed from a phone or tablet, make it possible to control consumption remotely. Using apps, the pump can be switched off and on again, with heating times determined in advance. ...
4.3 Heat pump prices by product type
According to Observ ER, heat pump prices in **** will be as follows:
In addition to these various purchase and installation costs, there's the running cost, which varies from around €* to €* per square metre per year (***).
Prices for ground-source heat pumps will rise by an average of *% between **** and ****. Air-source heat pumps, on the other hand, will rise by between *% and *% compared with ****.
5 Regulations
5.1 Regulatory framework
A market subject to European directives
In ****, new European eco-design and energy labeling directives were implemented[***] :
The European eco-design directive deals with all energy-using products to encourage consumers to buy more energy-efficient appliances. It sets out a list of criteria to be met when purchasing a product to ensure that it is environmentally friendly. The Energy Labeling Directive deals with energy labels, listing the appliances to be labeled and their performance rating(***). This scale will soon be modified to take into account the increasing range of appliances on the market.
Heat pump installation regulations
noise regulations
A heat pump in operation has a noise level of between ** and ** decibels. You should therefore refer to the legal provisions governing noise pollution: article R****-** of the French Public Health Code, articles L***-* et seq. of the French Environmental Code, and the decree of **/**/****.
regulations governing visual appearance
Since a pump will alter the exterior appearance of your home, you'll need: prior authorization from the Town Hall, the agreement of the co-owners, and installation that's as unobtrusive as possible.
maintenance regulations
Maintaining your heat pump ensures that your equipment is ***% functional, and avoids leaks that could release a highly polluting refrigerant. That's ...
6 Positioning the players
6.1 Player segmentation
- Atlantic Groupe
- BDR Thermea (De Dietrich, Remea, Baxi)
- Daikin (France)
- Vaillant Group (Saunier Duval)
- Systemair
- Comafranc
- Richardson
- Hervé Thermique groupe
- Saint-Gobain Groupe
- Carrier Global
- Giordano Riello Group (Aermec)
- Chappée (BDR Therma)
- Intuis (Muller Groupe)
- Airton
- Beretta clima (Carrier)
- Bosch Thermotechnology
- BSB Europe (Broad group)
- Weishaupt
- Warmpac
- Warmpool
- Viessmann (France)
- Toshiba Climate
- Toshiba Corporation
- Thermocold (Ingersoll Rand)
- Nibe Energy System (Technibel)
- Stiebel Eltron
- Panasonic
- SCAAF
- Saunier Duval (Groupe Vaillant)
- Samsung Electronics France
- BAXI Boilers
- Chaffoteaux (Ariston)
- Ariston Thermo
- CIAT (Carrier)
- Riello (Carrier)
- EID
- Erset
- Frisquet
- Heliopac
- Johnson Controls
- Kuthe
- LG Electronics France
- Mitsubishi Electric
- MTA Cooling Conditionning
- Nextherm
- REMKO
- Lennox International
- Airwell (Systemair Groupe)
- Alpha Innotec (Nibe Group)
- Bosch
- Systemair Groupe
- Rexel
- Arkteos (Actidis Groupe)
- Aldes Aerolique
- Idex
- Arkeon Energy Systems
- Xterma Energies
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