The heat pump market - Spain

1.2 The global market

The global heat pump market has grown significantly in recent years. In ****, the market size was $*.** billion. It increased to $*.*** billion in ****, and is expected to continue growing in the coming years. Market size is estimated to reach $*.*** billion in ****, rising to $*.** billion in ****. Growth is expected to continue, with a market of $*.*** billion in ****, $*.*** billion in **** and, finally, $**.*** billion in ****. These figures testify to the growing importance of heat pumps in the energy sector, and to the constantly evolving global demand for more efficient, environmentally-friendly heating and cooling solutions. The global market is expected to grow at a CAGR of *.*% over the period ****-****.

Global heat pump market growth forecasts World, ****-****, billions of dollars Source: ****

1.3 The European market

We had based our analysis on data provided by Eurostat using the code ********, which corresponds to the following heading: "Heat pumps (***)"

Between **** and ****, the value of heat pump production in the European Union experienced significant growth. In ****, it stood at €*.*** billion. After a slight decrease in **** (***), and then to €*.*** billion in ****.

However, in ****, the value slightly declined to €*.*** billion (***). This upward trend continued until ****, when production reached €*.*** billion, marking a total increase of **.*% during this period.

From **** onward, a notable acceleration occurred. Production increased to €*.*** billion in **** (***). These figures highlight a strong increase in demand and the growing importance of heat pumps, likely linked to the rising focus on energy transition and efficiency across Europe.

Value of heat pump production European Union, **** to ****, in millions of euros Source: ****

A breakdown of the countries with the highest heat pump production values in **** gives us the following graph, which shows that Sweden and France alone account for more than the middle of European production value.

Breakdown of heat pump production value European Union, ****, in percent Source: ****

1.4 The domestic market

The value of heat pump production in Spain rose significantly between **** and ****. In ****, production was worth **,*** million euros, and by **** it had risen to ***,*** million euros. This represents overall growth of ***% over this period. The average annual growth rate (***) for this period is **.*%. Production accelerated sharply from **** onwards.

Spanish heat pump production by value Spain, ****-****, millions of euros Source: ****

1.5 Imports and exports

In order to study Spanish foreign trade in heat pumps, we will evaluate data related to HS code ******: "Heat pumps; other than air conditioning machine of heading no. ****" of the United Nations International Classification.

Between **** and ****, Spanish foreign trade in heat pumps has seen significant developments. Exports rose by ***.*%, from $**.** million in **** to $***.** million in ****. At the same time, imports also increased, but at a slower pace, growing by **.*% between **** and ****, from $**.** million to $***.** million. The trade balance remained negative over the period, but improved by **.*%, from -**.** million dollars in **** to -**.** million dollars in ****.

Evolution of the Spanish trade balance for heat pumps Spain and the World, ****-****, millions of euros Source: ****

In ****, Spanish heat pump exports will be distributed among the various destinations as follows: France will account for the largest share with **.**% of exports, followed by the Netherlands with **.**% and Italy with **.**%. Portugal ranks fourth with **.**%, while the UK and Germany account for *.**% and *.**% of exports respectively. Switzerland accounts for *.**%, while the rest of the world accounts for **.**% of heat pump exports from Spain.

Main destinations for Spanish heat pump exports Spain and the World, ****, % (***) Source: ****

In ****, Spanish heat pump imports will come mainly from seven countries. ...

1.6 Spain's changing energy mix

The Spanish government has set targets for changing the country's energy mix by ****. Compared to ****, fossil fuels are set to decrease by **% to **.*** million tonnes of oil equivalent. Nuclear power generation is set to fall by **% to *.* million tonnes of oil equivalent. Other forms of energy, which accounted for *,*** million tonnes of oil equivalent in ****, are set to be phased out completely. By contrast, the share of renewable energies is set to almost double, from **,*** to **,*** million tonnes of oil equivalent, an increase of ***%.

Spanish primary energy mix Spain, ****-****, million tonnes of oil equivalent Source: ****

These changes to the energy mix also involve energy savings. In the residential sector, the aim is to reduce energy consumption by **%. In the tertiary sector, the target reduction is **%. The transport sector is where the greatest effort is required, with a reduction of **%. For industry, the target is to reduce energy consumption by **%. Lastly, the agricultural sector is expected to achieve energy savings of *%.

Energy savings forecast by sector in Spain Spain, ****, % of total energy consumption Source: ****

In the residential sector, these energy savings translate into a reduction of *.*** million tonnes of oil equivalent through improved energy efficiency in buildings, and a reduction of ...

2.1 State of the Spanish real estate market

In ****, Spain's housing stock comprised **,***,*** homes and offices. Of these, buildings with more than ** apartments account for **.**% of the total Spanish housing stock. Buildings with * to * apartments account for **.**% of the total, and two-family homes for *.**%. Finally, office buildings are in the minority, with a share of *.**%.

Breakdown of housing types in Spain Spain, ****, in thousands Source: ****

In terms of housing type, multi-family dwellings make up **.**% of the Spanish housing stock, while single-family dwellings account for **.**%.

Distribution of buildings/houses Spain, ****, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, % Source: ****

2.2 Spanish climate and air conditioning and heating equipment

The map below shows Spain's climate zones. They have been defined by the CTE, the technical building code that governs Spanish insulation standards. The blue zones correspond to cold, mountain climates, while the zones tending towards red represent warmer climates. Heating demand is therefore determined by this climatic reality, and will be higher in areas requiring better insulation.

Source: ****

Nationwide:

By ****, **.*% of Spanish homes were equipped with a heating system.

Main dwellings equipped with a heating system in Spain Spain, ****, % of total Source: ****

The air-conditioning equipment rate is also interesting for the heat pump market. Thanks to their versatility, these systems can be used for both heating and cooling. Demand for air conditioning is therefore potential demand for heat pumps. In ****, **.*% of Spaniards did not have an air-conditioning system.

Main dwellings with air conditioning in Spain Spain, ****, % Source: ****

At regional level:

The map below shows the percentage of Spanish main dwellings equipped with a heating system. In Spain, the Autonomous Communities best equipped with heating systems are the Comunidad Foral de Navarra (***). Generally speaking, there is a geographical disparity in home heating equipment in Spain: the northern and central regions are better equipped overall than those in the south and on ...

2.3 demand typology

In terms of heat pumps installed in Spain up to ****, **.**% were intended for the residential sector. Private heating and air-conditioning thus represent the sector's greatest demand.

Buildings equipped with heat pumps by sector, among buildings equipped España, ****, % (***) Source: ****

Between geothermal and aerothermal heat pumps, in **** heat pumps were very unevenly distributed. Aerothermal heat pumps dominated the market, accounting for **.*% of all heat pump installations. Geothermal, on the other hand, accounted for only a small fraction of this total, with just *.*% of installations.

Aerothermal or geothermal? Spain, ****, % Source: ****

Finally, we can see that Air-to-Air systems are preferred by Spaniards, since this technology represented **.*% of pumps installed in Spain in ****. Also, just under ***% of Spaniards have opted for a reversible system that not only provides heating, but also air conditioning, thanks to heat pumps.

Type of heat pumps sold in Spain Spain, ****, % of total Source: ****

2.4 Subsidies

The table below lists the various grants available to private individuals for installing heat pumps:

Source: ****

below are the requirements for obtaining these subsidies:

The subsidy must be for residential use. The installation must comply with the requirements of the Thermal Installations in Buildings Regulation and use air-water technology. Aerothermal equipment must require a control system. The owner must have owned the dwelling for five years, i.e. from the date of installation. The owner must be up to date with social security and tax payments.

3.1 Value chain

The graph below shows the value chain of the heat pump sector in Spain:

The stages in this value chain include the following:

Procurement of raw materials: Heat pump manufacturers source the materials needed to build the units. This may include components such as compressors, heat exchangers, piping, sensors, valves and electrical circuits. Manufacturing, assembly and quality control: Materials are processed and assembled to manufacture heat pumps. Individual components are assembled to form the complete unit, including compressor, heat exchanger, refrigerant circuit, sensors and control systems. quality controls are carried out at every stage of the manufacturing process. Distribution and installation: Heat pumps are distributed to specialized dealers, installers or directly to consumers. Qualified professionals install the units in buildings, ensuring correct installation and connection to existing heating and cooling systems. Use and maintenance: End-users use heat pumps to heat and/or cool their premises. They are responsible for the proper use and regular maintenance of the units, including cleaning filters, checking refrigerant levels and inspecting performance. After-sales service : Heat pump manufacturers and suppliers generally offer after-sales services, such as technical advice, repairs, spare parts and warranties. This helps maintain customer satisfaction and resolve any problems that may arise. End-of-life and ...

3.2 Production

Between **** and ****, the number of multitasking heat pumps installed in Spain rose by ***.*%, from **,*** to **,***. At the same time, the number of heat pumps intended solely for domestic hot water (***) also rose significantly, by ***.*% over the same period, from *,*** to **,***. It's important to note that the latter are included in the total for multitasking heat pumps, and that these same heat pumps are the ones used to obtain air-conditioning and heating via the air-water system.

Number of heat pumps produced in Spain Spain, ****-****, thousands of heat pumps Source: ****

The table below shows sales figures for the main heat pump manufacturers on the Spanish market.

Source: ****

4.1 Types of heat bombs :

Typology of heat pump types:

There are two ways in which heat pumps operate, and two sub-categories of heat pump for aerothermal systems. Systems that produce both heat and air conditioning are said to be reversible. Both aerothermal sub-systems can be reversible.

Aerothermal :

Operating principles: An outdoor unit captures heat from the outside air, then an indoor unit distributes it throughout the house. A heat transfer fluid transports the heat between the two pieces of equipment.

System types :

Air-to-air heat pump: Heat is transmitted indoors using a fan coil unit. These only provide air-conditioning and heating.

Air-to-water heat pump (***): Heat is injected into an existing water heating circuit, then distributed via emitters such as water radiators or underfloor heating. These, enable heating and cooling and the obtaining of hot water.

Geothermal :

Operating principle: Calories are recovered from the ground using underground collectors. A refrigerant transports the heat from the ground to the compressor, which releases it into the heating system. An expansion valve then reduces the pressure so that the fluid becomes a liquid again.

Installation requirements: Installing a geothermal heat pump requires more extensive work. Depending on the method chosen (***), drilling to depths ranging from a few dozen meters to ...

4.2 Prices

In ****, the average price for the installation of a heat pump system in Spain was estimated at between *,*** and **,*** euros for a dwelling.

Average price of a heat pump in Spain Spain, ****, euros Source: ****

Within this price range, the heat pump accounts for a significant proportion of the installation, with an estimated price of between *,*** and *,*** euros.

Average price of a heat pump Spain, ****, euros Source: ****

Labor costs are estimated at between *,*** and *,*** euros. Materials, between *,*** and **,*** euros.

Average price for labor and materials, aerothermal system installation Spain, ****, euros Finally, the table below shows the total installation cost as a function of surface area, heat pump capacity and type of heating.

Surface area Heat pump capacity Approximate price without underfloor heating Approximate price with underfloor heating ** * kw * *** € ** *** € *** * kw * *** € ** *** € *** ** kw ** *** € ** *** € *** ** kw ** *** € ** *** € *** ** kw ** *** € ** *** €

Source: ****

4.3 Supply trends

Here are a few trends in the Spanish heat pump market:

More energy efficiency: The quest for energy efficiency is an important trend in the heat pump market. Manufacturers are seeking to develop more efficient products to reduce energy consumption and minimize environmental impact.

Connectivity and home automation : Connectivity has become a key aspect in the heat pump sector. Manufacturers are increasingly integrating connectivity and remote control features into their appliances, enabling users to monitor and manage their heating systems remotely.

Hybridization: Hybridization is an emerging trend in the heat pump market. Manufacturers are developing systems that combine different types of heating technology, such as combining heat pumps with condensing boilers or solar systems, to optimize energy efficiency.

Natural refrigerant gases : Due to European regulations limiting the use of refrigerant gases, manufacturers are increasingly turning to the use of natural refrigerants. These environmentally-friendly refrigerants offer a more sustainable alternative to traditional refrigerant gases.

Source: ****

5.1 Regulations

The year **** was marked by a series of new regulations influencing the agenda of players in the air conditioning and heating sector.

In ****, the redefinition of the EU's new energy policy was particularly important, thanks to the RepowerEU communication, which proposes, among other measures, the deployment of * million heat pumps by **** and ** million by ****, so that the installed base reaches ** million by that year. In addition, Regulation ****/**** of December ** was adopted, establishing a framework for accelerating the deployment of renewable energies and recognizing heat pumps as being of "overriding public interest", thus contributing to the development of the European energy mix.public interest", thus contributing to the EU's public health and safety (***).

In ****, changes were also made to the methodology for calculating the renewable energy supplied by heat pumps, with the entry into force of the de****/*** of December **, according to which part of the energy extracted during "active refrigeration" can already be considered as renewable energy.

This methodology will be affected by the adoption of a new primary energy factor for electricity, a factor of *.* instead of the current *.* (***).

This new factor will serve as the basis for establishing the new minimum efficiency for heat pumps to be considered renewable, ...

6.1 Segmentation

• Leroy Merlin Espagne
• Samsung Group
• LG Electronics Deutschland
• J.Corradi
• Stuv
• Thermor
• Tradesa
• Ev confort
• Ducasa
• Haverland
• ACV
• Wolf
• Baxi
• Junkers
• Kaysun