The nuclear decommissioning market - France (2023)

1.2 Global overview of nuclear dismantling

As many nuclear power plants around the world approach the end of their lifecycle, the nuclear decommissioning sector is emerging. This process concerns not only nuclear power plants, but also other facilities linked to the nuclear fuel cycle, such as research centers, spent fuel reprocessing plants and waste treatment facilities. Estimates predict that by ****, several hundred billion dollars will be invested in decommissioning worldwide[***].

The global nuclear decommissioning market was valued at $*.*** billion in **** and is expected to grow at a CAGR of *.*% to ****.

Estimated evolution of the global nuclear dismantling market size World, **** - ****, in billions of dollars Source: ****

In December ****, according to theIAEA, there were *** nuclear reactors in operation worldwide: the USA, France and China dominated the market, with **.*% of the fleet in operation.

Number of nuclear reactors in major countries (***) World, ****, in number of reactors Source: ****

Currently, ** reactors are under construction, including ** in China.

Number of nuclear reactors under construction in major countries World, ****, in number of reactors Source: ****

A total of *** reactors are shut down. In ****, the total number of shut-down nuclear reactors was ***, of which only ** had been fully dismantled[***].this means that most reactors are in the process of being dismantled, or are in the ...

1.3 French and European market size

Dismantling accounts for just *% of total sales in the nuclear industry. In addition, remediation, which includes the removal of hazardous elements from sites prior to decommissioning, contributes a further *.*%[***], the size of the French dismantling market can be estimated at *** million euros in ****.

In ****, a study by Roland Berger estimated the European market at ** billion euros by ****. Annualized, this corresponds to a market worth over *.* million euros per year.

The French market is estimated at ** billion euros for France (***), or around **% of the European market. Annualized, this corresponds to a market of *** million euros per year, which is within the order of magnitude of our estimate. This makes France Europe's leading market.

Nuclear dismantling market size over the period **** - **** Europe, **** - ****, € billion Source: ****

To estimate the French and European markets, Roland Berger assumed that the cost of dismantling a *** MW reactor in France would be between €*** and €*** million. However, this cost can vary widely depending on the country and the type of reactor (***).

Usine Nouvelle nevertheless believes that the market may well be overestimated, since if we assume a **-year reactor lifetime, there would be *** reactors to dismantle by ****. However, many plants have a longer lifespan (***).another limitation to estimating ...

1.4 Nuclear safety during the dismantling phase

Nuclear safety in France encompasses the technical and organizational measures put in place to prevent nuclear accidents or minimize their consequences. These measures apply to all phases in the life of basic nuclear installations, including design, construction, operation, shutdown and dismantling, as well as to the transport of radioactive materials.

Nuclear safety has a number of objectives:

tomaintain normal operating conditions at facilities, to avoid excessive exposure of workers to ionizing radiation, and to prevent excessive releases of radioactivity into the environment; prevent the occurrence of nuclear incidents and accidents; limit the impact on workers, the general public and the environment in the event of an incident or accident.

Nuclear safety is a key element of nuclear security, which also includes radiation protection, the prevention and combating of acts of terrorism, and the protection of the environment.vention and the fight against malicious acts, as well as the civil security measures to be deployed in the event of a nuclear accident[***].

Focus on safety during the dismantling of a nuclear facility:

During the dismantling of a nuclear facility, environmental risks are generally reduced due to the reduction in radioactive materials. However, risks to workers increase due to the nature of the ...

2.1 Status of French nuclear power plants

France's nuclear power plants comprise ** reactors in operation: ** generate *** MW of electrical power, ** produce **** MW, and the remaining four deliver **** MW.

Distribution of reactors by power output France, ****, in MW Source: ****

A **ᵉ reactor, of the EPR (***)type and with an estimated electrical output of **** MW, is currently under construction at Flamanville, in the Manche region. In ****, these nuclear facilities supplied around **% of the electricity generated in France.

EDF is continuing its"Grand carénage" program, aimed at extending the lifespan of its oldest nuclear reactors beyond ** years. However, the government is considering running them even longer, potentially up to half a century. According to certain scenarios proposed by RTE to achieve carbon neutrality by ****, these reactors could even be operational for more than ** years.

Since the shutdown of the Fessenheim plant in ****, and pending the commissioning of the Flamanville EPR, France has ** nuclear reactors in operation, making it the second largest nuclear fleet in the world after the United States, which has **. Of these ** reactors, ** were commissioned before ****, while ** were commissioned after ****, and none were commissioned after ****. As a result, the average age of the French nuclear fleet was **.* years on December **, ****[***].

Age of French reactors since connection to the grid France, ...

2.2 Nuclear facilities to be dismantled: current situation and future prospects

Current projects:

In ****, ** nuclear reactors are in the process of being dismantled or partially dismantled. There are also ** fuel cycle process plants being dismantled[***].the last reactors to be dismantled are the two Fessenheim reactors, which were closed in **** after ** years of operation.

In June ****, Orano completed the dismantling of the experimental Ulysse nuclear reactor, which had been shut down in ****. This small reactor was used for teaching and training purposes, and took * years to dismantle.

UNGG reactors (***): six UNGG reactors in France have been shut down for **-** years[***].

Chooz A : pressurized water reactor (***), close to the French power plants currently in operation. Operated between **** and ****, its fuel was removed in **** and the decree for dismantling signed in ****. This is an important project, as it serves as a base or "prototype" for future dismantling projects.

Fessenheim: the Alsatian power plant has been shut down since ****, and pre-dismantling work has already begun, but it will be **** before the plant is fully dismantled.all the plant's spent fuel has been transported to the La Hague reprocessing plant, under the supervision of the ASN (***). Other hazardous substances, including fuel oil and hydrogen, were also evacuated from the site. The circuits of the first ...

2.3 The future of nuclear generation dictated by energy policies

In the early ****s, warnings of the climate risks associated with the continued consumption of carbon-based energy intensified. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (***) continued to present a gloomy outlook for climate change. In addition, the energy impact of Russia's aggression against Ukraine at the end of February **** underlined the vulnerability of European countries in terms of energy security.

In order to generate **% more electricity, construction of six EPR * plants is due to start soon, followed by eight more at a later date. On January **, ****, the French Senate adopted a text aimed at speeding up procedures for the construction of new nuclear power plants, including the elimination of the **% cap on nuclear power in the **** electricity mix and the **.* GW maximum installed nuclear capacity in the Energy Code. For its part, on May **, ****, the French National Assembly voted a text simplifying administrative and town-planning procedures, which should save two years for the startup of the EPR * plants, notably those at Penly, which should be operational in June **** instead of June ****.

According to the"Energy Futures ****" scenarios of Réseau Technique de France(***), with the aim of achieving carbon neutrality by ****, energy consumption could fall by **% by ****. However, electricity would account for ...

2.4 A positive perception of nuclear energy in France

Nuclear power enjoys a good reputation in France, with **% of French people saying they are in favor of nuclear power production in France.

Personally, are you in favor or opposed to the production of nuclear energy in France? France, ****, in Source: ****

We can see that the older generations are the most convinced by nuclear energy. Indeed, the **-** age group has a rate of **%, while the over-**s have a rate of **%.

So, logically, the French are mostly in favor of building new nuclear reactors in the coming years.

Personally, are you in favor or against the construction of new nuclear reactors in France in the next few years? France, ****, in Source: ****

The results have changed slightly since the last survey in ****, when only **% of respondents were in favor of building new nuclear reactors.were in favor of building new nuclear reactors that year, while **% were in favor in ****. Responses differ enormously according to political commitment: sympathizers of right-wing and far-right parties are, on average, more favorable to the construction of new nuclear reactors than Socialist Party sympathizers, who are themselves more favorable than ecologist and communist party sympathizers.

The French attribute different images to nuclear energy, some positive, others negative. ...

3.1 Key stages in nuclear dismantling

Main stages in dismantling a nuclear reactor

According to EDF for a pressurized water reactor

Source: ****

According to EDF, the total duration of stages * and * is ** years. This corresponds to the duration after the Mise à l'Arrêt Définitif et Démantèlement (***). In practice, the dismantling phase, from final shutdown to final dismantling, can take up to ** years[***].

In France, immediate dismantling is the preferred option, with dismantling operations starting after final shutdown. Dismantling is preferred for several reasons:

on average, it is **% less costly, as it allows us to benefit from the knowledge of existing teams and reduce site maintenance and safety costs; it also reassures local residents and reduces risks; the idea is also to avoid passing on the responsibility for dismantling to future generations.

France's Plan National de Gestion des Matières et des Déchets Radioactifs (***) establishes a separate channel for each type of radioactive waste, based on the activity and lifespan of the main radioactive elements[***]. We will come back to the waste generated by dismantling activities in section *.*.

According to Roland Berger, however, other dismantling strategies may exist in other countries, such as :

deferred dismantling: the radioactive materials in reactors are secured for several ...

3.2 Industry organization and competitive strategy

Organization of the industry :

In France, legislation provides for immediate dismantling once a nuclear facility has been shut down. Dismantling is the responsibility of the operators (***), but involves a number of different players.

The Groupement des industriels français de l'énergie nucléaire (***) has identified *,*** companies in the French nuclear industry. Of these, *** focus on decommissioning , using specific technologies or calling on skills in fields such as civil engineering. There are only **% of VSE/SMEs in the nuclear dismantling segment, compared with **% in the nuclear industry as a whole, a sign that the dismantling market is still dominated by large, historic players. This is due to the very long lead times encountered in this sector, which force companies to be extremely solid financially[***].

Operators can handle different phases of the process, such as :

project, planning and development decontamination of structures and equipment plant dismantling and waste conditioning transport and storage of spent fuel and low-level dismantling waste redevelopment of the site of the former nuclear facility

EDF Cyclife offers a range of services dedicated to dismantling projects:

complete physical and radiological inventory of a plant technical support for decommissioning projects preliminary studies and dismantling strategies project and program management cost ...

3.3 Dismantling waste management

We note that **% of the waste resulting from the dismantling of a nuclear reactor is non-radioactive , and is waste that could come from any reactor dismantling.

Breakdown of the volume of waste produced by the dismantling of a **** MW reactor France, in % of ***,*** tonnes of waste Source: ****

The management of low- and intermediate-level waste - **% of all waste - requires specialized treatment.

In France, all potentially radioactive waste, including that with a very low hazard level, must be stored in secure sites. EDF intends to set up a "technocenter" to process metal waste from dismantling and test its radioactivity. Some hope to create a radioactivity threshold below which waste can be reused or recycled. The issue remains the subject of much controversy, all the more so as storage sites are nearing saturation.

All the EDF reactors currently being decommissioned will generate *** tonnes of low- and medium-level (***) [***].

4.1 Different types of reactors and nuclear facilities

According to Roland Berger, there are * types of nuclear reactors:

power reactors, designed to generate electricity:

These are the main ones covered in this study. The ** French nuclear power plants in operation - with a total of ** reactors in operation - are based on the same model and technology. Reactors are distinguished mainly by "levels":[***] - reactors in the

*** MWe reactors **** MWe reactors **** MWe reactors **** MWe reactors

These reactors are also distinguished by the technology they use: today's nuclear reactors are pressurized water reactors (***), but in the past other technologies were used. The * reactors currently being dismantled by EDF France are based on * different technologies:

heavy water nuclear reactor (***) natural uranium graphite gas reactor (***) fast neutron nuclear reactor (***) pressurized water nuclear reactor (***)

The move towards PWR technologies is also encouraging the development of an organized French dismantling industry.

research reactors: for example, to produce medical isotopes

military reactors: for naval propulsion, for example

4.2 Nuclear decommissioning costs

According to EDF, the cost of dismantling a *** MW reactor in France is estimated at between *** and *** million euros.

Breakdown of main dismantling costs for a *** MW reactor France, according to EDF, in % of total cost Source: ****

Cost uncertainties persist:

According to Les Echos, the true cost of dismantling is difficult to assess. As of June ****, EDF had set aside:

** billion euros for decommissioning ** billion euros for spent fuel management ** billion euros for waste management

Many observers believe that these provisions are underestimated, and a **** parliamentary report claims that these costs could be *.* times higher.

Gilles Giron, deputy director of nuclear decommissioning at EDF, estimated the cost of dismantling a pressurized water reactor (***). However, EDF can draw on its experience with the Chooz A reactor in the Ardennes, which was shut down in ****. The process of dismantling this reactor, initiated in ****, is now in its final phase[***].

Variables influencing costs:

According to a Roland Berger benchmark on the costs of dismantling certain power plants around the world in recent years, costs are highly heterogeneous. The average cost is *** million euros, but they have varied from *** million euros to *** million euros.

According to Roland Berger , the cost of dismantling can vary ...

4.3 The impact of robotization on the sector

Robotisation is making a significant contribution to nuclear reactor dismantling operations[***].most players have developed robots capable of performing a wide range of tasks inside reactors. These robots can :

automate radiological mapping of installations; assist heavy deconstruction operations; reduce personnel exposure risks (***); various clean-up, dismantling and cutting operations.

This can lead to gains in productivity and safety. However, due to this strong reliance on robotization, it is estimated that a plant undergoing dismantling employs ** times fewer workers than a plant in operation[***].

Examples of work involving robots:

Graphitech is a joint venture between EDF and Veolia that aims to develop technologies for dismantling the nuclear industry. It combines EDF's expertise in nuclear decommissioning engineering with Veolia's specialist knowledge of nuclear remote maintenance. The main aim of the joint venture is to design articulated robotic arms and dismantling tools to safely remove bricks and graphite piles from nuclear reactors. Their robot is called VR*Robots[***].

Veolia Nuclear Solutions has developed a robot called Boom to map a reactor at the Fukushima power plant in Japan. The rise of these robots, which are effective in hostile environments, is a major contribution to the dismantling of nuclear reactors (***). To expand in this buoyant segment, ...

5.1 Regulatory framework for nuclear decommissioning

When a Basic Nuclear Installation (***) is definitively shut down, its vocation changes, in accordance with the decree authorizing its creation, which specifies the conditions of its operation. The ensuing dismantling operations modify the risks associated with the facility. As a result, these operations cannot be carried out within the regulatory framework established by the initial authorization decree.

Under article L. ***-** of the French Environment Code, the process of dismantling a basic nuclear facility is regulated by a new decree, drawn up following consultation with the French Nuclear Safety Authority (***). The decree defines the main phases of the dismantling process, the date by which it must be completed, and the final state that the facility must achieve.

The regulations governing the dismantling of basic nuclear installations were clarified and supplemented in **** by Law no. ****-*** of June **, **** on the transparency and safety of nuclear energy. transparency and safety in nuclear matters, then by the decree of November *, ****, now codified, and the order of February *, ****. The French law on energy transition for green growth has modified the legislative framework for dismantling nuclear facilities:

the operator must declare * years beforehand to the minister in charge of nuclear safety and to the ASN if ...

5.2 Summary of the different phases in the life of a basic nuclear facility (INB)

Source: ****

6. Segmentation

• Orano
• Véolia Groupe
• Bouygues Construction
• Eiffage Groupe
• Engie
• ONET Groupe
• CEA
• TechnicAtome groupe
• Vinci Groupe
• EDF
• SOLOXY TRAVAUX INDUSTRIELS-DEMANTELEMENT
• NUVIA (Vinci Groupe)
• Derichebourg Environnement
• IRSN
• ANDRA
• Framatome