The electric cars market - France (2023)

1.2 A booming global market, dominated by China

The global electric vehicle market was estimated at $***.** billion in ****, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of **.*% to ****, a sign of strong expansion.

Sales growth projections for the global electric vehicle market World, **** - ****, in $ billions Source: ****

Factors such as rising fuel costs, global environmental awareness, growing interest in sustainable modes of travel, technological advances and government initiatives are driving the rise in demand for electric vehicles. Infrastructure for recharging stations continues to develop, and countries like China continue to lead the market for passenger vehicles and city buses, thanks to a well-established supply chain for batteries and traction motors.

In ****, sales of electric cars (***) hit a record high of over ** million, representing **% of all new cars sold, up from *% in **** and just under *% on ****. This increase means that therewere over ** million electric cars on the road worldwide in ****, an increase of **% on ****. These figures illustrate the growing role of EVs in the automotive industry, in line with Europe's zero-emission target for ****[***].

Worldwide sales of light electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles World, ****-****, in millions of units Source: ****

Hybrid vehicles, like ***% electric vehicles, are becoming increasingly popular every year, exceeding ** million units sold by ****. Their share of total vehicle ...

1.3 Europe in pole position for the development of electric cars

In order to become a climate-neutral continent by ****, Europe is planning to implement various legislative proposals, many of which concern mobility, as transport accounts for almost a quarter of the continent's emissions. The European Commission aims to have at least ** million electric vehicles on the road by ****, a significant increase on the *.* million currently on the road. To achieve this goal, regulations and targets will be set to guide governments, businesses and consumers. The European Union has also launched a €*** billion economic stimulus plan, which includes a €** billion allocation to encourage sales of clean vehicles. In addition, the plan calls for the installation of one million charging stations for electric and hydrogen vehicles by **** [***].

number of electric cars in Europe Europe, **** - ****, in millions of vehicles Source: ****

The number of electric cars in Europe has risen from ***,*** in **** to *.* million in ****. This number of vehicles is divided between BEVs (***). There is a slight dominance of BEVs, which will number *.* million in ****, compared with *.* million PHEVs.

number of charging stations in Europe Europe, **** - ****, in thousands Source: ****

The number of charging stations is exploding in Europe, rising from **,*** in **** to ***,*** in ****. This corresponds to a **% increase over ****, and even a ***% increase over ...

1.4 Growth in the French market

Despite a slow start due to factors such as high cost, lack of recharging infrastructure and limited public understanding, the number of electric vehihicles registered in France rose sharply during ****, despite the pandemic, the economic crisis and the shortage of semiconductors[***]. As shown in the graph below, the number of electric cars sold in France rose from **,*** in **** to ***,*** in ****(***), and will reach ***,*** in ****.

number of electric cars sold in France France, **** - ****, in thousands of vehicles Source: ****

Unfortunately, no information is available on the size of the French market for electric cars, so we're going to estimate it. According to ByMyCar, a new electric car costs between €**,*** and €**,*** to buy. In fact, the different features of the vehicles (***) vary enormously in price. According to the graph above, ***,*** electric cars were sold in France last year. We can therefore make the following estimates:

Low estimate: Number of electric cars sold x Low average price = ***,*** x **,*** = *.* billion euros

High estimate: Number of electric cars sold x Average high price = ***,*** x **,*** = **.* billion euros

The French market for electric cars is thus estimated at between *.* and **.* billion euros for ****. However, we have not taken used vehicles into account, as their average price is very ...

1.5 Foreign trade based on imports

Electric cars are listed under HS code ******: passenger cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of less than ** persons, including station wagons and racing cars, with only an electric motor for propulsion (***). This code covers more vehicles than just electric cars, but it will enable us to observe the main trends in French foreign trade.

Exports:

French exports of electrically propelled vehicles by value and volume France, **** - ****, in millions of dollars and number of vehicles Source: ****

French exports of electrically propelled vehicles have been rising sharply since ****, a date for which we unfortunately don't have the quantity of vehicles exported. The value of exports has practically quintupled in five years, rising from around $*** million in **** to $*.*** billion in ****.

Main buyers of French electric vehicles World, ****, in millions of $ and number of vehicles Source: ****

The main buyer country is Germany, followed by the UK and Belgium. The main purchasing countries are exclusively European.

Imports:

French imports of electrically-projected vehicles in value and volume France, **** - ****, in millions of $ and thousands of vehicles Source: ****

Like exports, French imports have also been on the rise since ****. Unfortunately, we don't have the quantities imported in ****, **** and ****, but we can see a ...

1.6 The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the electric vehicle market

In ****, the market for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles proved highly resilient and even impervious to the health crisis and prevailing gloom. the prevailing gloom, with growth of almost ***% recorded over the year, while the automotive market as a whole suffered a sharp decline of -**.*%. [***]

It should also be noted that this health crisis has encouraged the development and use of individual modes of transport, due to the successive confinements and the virus that was circulating: this is partly why, for example, there has been a sharp increase in demand for electric bicycles.

The first confinement was followed by a rebound in demand, which helped to revitalize sales: the VAE (***). [***]

As the electric bicycle is not the only mode of individual transport, it appears that the electric car market has also benefited from the health crisis. A survey carried out in May **** by AAA Data and OpinionWay revealed the following trend: **% of the *,*** French people questioned said they would prefer to use their private car once the confinement period was over.

In a government context that increasingly favors soft mobility and is beginning to penalize certain heat-powered vehicles.nergy vehicles, and a growing ecological awareness among the population, this obviously ...

2.1 Typology of demand for electric vehicles

France is one of the European countries where the transition to electric vehicles is the most popular. Indeed, almost **% of French people plan to invest in a plug-in hybrid (***) vehicle over the next two years.

Market potential for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles Europe, **** - ****, as % of total market Source: ****

In Europe, only Sweden performs better. Most electric vehicle buyers are private individuals.

Distribution of electric vehicle buyers France, July ****, in Source: ****

On the other hand, legal entities account for more than three-quarters of purchasers of plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Distribution of purchasers of plug-in hybrid vehicles France, July ****, in Source: ****

The different types of electric car buyers are shown in the table below.

Source: ****

2.2 An uneven geographical distribution of demand

Electric vehicle drivers, also known as"e-drivers", remain a minority on the roads. Electricity adoption is growing rapidly in metropolitan areas, particularly in the more affluent suburban communities surrounding these large cities. These affluent residential areas show a particular interest in electric power.

In the Yvelines département, in ****, electric car purchases accounted for *.*% of all vehicle sales, both new and used. This percentage is similar to that of Hauts-de-Seine, but lower than that of Paris, where electric car sales accounted for *.*% of the total. By contrast, in rural areas such as Orne and Creuse, electric car sales were significantly lower, representing *.*% and *.*% respectively of total registrations in ****.

The territories with the highest proportions of electric car buyers also correspond to the wealthiest areas. A comparative analysis of living standards and plug-in vehicle purchases shows an almost identical territorial distribution. In other words, areas with a higher standard of living are also those with the highest number of electric car purchases.

The distribution of electric cars in France is notable on the Atlantic coast and in the southeast Mediterranean, attractive areas for retired city dwellers wishing to live near the sea. A strong presence of these vehicles can also be observed ...

2.3 A network of charging stations that is expanding, but still unevenly distributed

Initially scheduled for completion by the end of ****, the French government's objective of deploying ***,*** electric charging stations across the country has been postponed to **** due to the economic climate. The government's aim is to enable drivers to recharge their vehicles to **% in ** minutes, encouraging new habits that are more respectful of the environment and road safety. In addition, the deployment of a large number of charging stations will enable drivers to envisage longer journeys with their electric vehicle, and thus democratize electric mobility.

The French Ministry of Ecological Transition, in collaboration with Avere-France and based on Gireve data, announced that the target of ***,*** charging points open to the public was reached on May *, ****. The ratio is now *** charging points per ***,*** inhabitants. Of these installations, **,*** have been connected to the public distribution network. In addition, there has been a significant ***% increase in the deployment of very high-power fast-charging systems, bringing the total to *,*** charging points of *** kW or more nationwide.

Source: ****

There is a disparity in the distribution of electric vehicle charging points between French regions. Île-de-France has the most charging points, with **,***, followed by Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes with **,***. In contrast, the Centre-Val-de-Loire region is at the bottom of the ranking, with *,*** electric ...

2.4 The most popular models in France

In ****, the ten best-selling electric cars in France come from six different brands.

Most popular electric car models in **** France, ****, in number of registrations Source: ****

Since the start of ****, the Tesla Model Y, a much-anticipated compact SUV in Europe, has registered over **,*** registrations, topping the rankings. This model, designed for families, is similar in design to Tesla's sedan, but larger in size. It is available in several versions, each with a different range. The most recent versions can cover more than *** kilometers on the WLTP cycle, making this vehicle suitable for long journeys.

The Dacia Spring, an affordable city car, ranked second in sales in ****, with **,*** units sold. Appreciated for its value for money and range of *** km in the WLTP combined cycle, it is particularly attractive to urban drivers. The Spring, characterized by its simple, functional design, is a small five-door car with a raised stance, giving it the appearance of an SUV. Despite its compact size, it offers sufficient interior space to comfortably accommodate four passengers.

The Fiat *** electric, an iconic city car, currently occupies third place in the automotive market. With new body colors and a range of up to *** km, it has won over a large number ...

2.5 Electricity costs and the availability of charging stations: increasingly important factors in the use of electric cars

August *, **** saw a **% increase in electricity prices, following the end of the tariff shield, causing tension in the electricity market. According to a YouGov survey carried out by Danish charging station management startup Monta, **% of electric vehicle owners express regret about their purchase due to this rate hike.

Have recent increases in the cost of operating an EV/PHP made you regret buying/leasing an EV/PHP? France, ****, in Source: ****

At the same time, the same survey reveals that **% of French people are satisfied with electricity prices and do not consider them unfair. The installation of charging stations is becoming an important factor that electric car owners take into account when making their journeys. In fact, **% of them would prefer accommodation with charging facilities to accommodation without.

Are you likely or unlikely to prioritize a hotel/holiday accommodation that offers electric charging over one that doesn't? France, ****, in Source: ****

3.1 The main players in the French market

The ranking of manufacturers selling the most electric vehicles in France is changing fast. For a long time, Renault was able to establish itself on the market thanks to the Renault ZOE, with a big lead due to a lack of competition, but today the cards have been reshuffled. Today, however, the cards have been reshuffled: Renault has been dethroned by the American group Tesla, the undisputed leader in France.

In the first half of ****, ** different manufacturers sold their electric cars in France, for a total of ***,*** vehicles.

Market share of different electric car manufacturers France, *st half ****, in Source: ****

American carmaker Tesla has made a name for itself in France, accounting for almost a fifth of electric car sales. The American is followed by Renault and Peugeot, the two French automakers that manage to maintain their significant market share.

Source: ****

3.2 Electric vehicle value chain

The value system of the automotive industry as a whole is depicted in the diagram below:

French automotive industry value chain

Source: ****

However, it needs to be completed by the electromobility value chain, in order to design the production system for electric vehicles more precisely.

Electromobility value chain in France

Source: ****

3.3 Status of electric vehicle production in France

According to L'Usine Nouvelle, the European federation T&E (***) estimates that France will rank second in the production of electric vehicles in Europe by ****, with around **% of vehicles produced.

Estimated number of electric vehicles produced France, *****-*****, in thousands of units Source: ****

This might seem to counterbalance the trend we've been seeing in France for years towards de-industrialization. for example, in ****, France accounted for *.*% of light vehicle production worldwide (***). This is due to excessively high labor costs, which explains why, in ****, China accounted for **.*% of global automotive production, corresponding to over **.* million vehicles produced. A major opportunity for France to revive its industrial fabric and production may lie in the creation of electric battery manufacturing plants, which we will develop later in the study[***].

Estimated breakdown of automotive production France, *****, in Source: ****

But while the highly promising electric vehicle market should ensure growth in automobile production in France, it turns out that the construction of ethis is due to massive de-industrialization on the part of automakers, who prefer to locate in more favorable and, above all, less costly environments.

3.4 French automotive distribution

According to L'Argus,the number of automobile sales outlets has been falling for several years. This is the case for Renault-Dacia (***).

Number and distribution of automotive sales outlets France, ****-****, in number of outlets Source: ****

The phenomenon of concentration is particularly visible within car dealerships, which is detrimental to small businesses. Faced with this situation, professionals in the regions have undertaken efforts to adapt to these changes and diversify their activities.

The Vendée-based Dubreuil group is planning to take over eleven Citroën, DS and Peugeot dealerships in Charentes Maritimes and Creuse. Meanwhile, Mayenne-based Gemy Automobiles plans to acquire six Retail Renault Group establishments in Indre-et-Loire and Sarthe. These financial transactions, generally carried out between professionals in the sector, often see the larger players buy out the smaller ones, the latter being weakened by the decline in sales in ****: the new market is down by *.*% and the used market by **%.

At present, there are over **,*** light vehicle sales outlets, including dealers and agents, down by around a hundred units on the previous year. According to a study by Crédit Agricole, the entire industry, which includes dealerships, agents, manufacturer subsidiaries, mass distribution and representatives, generated sales of ***.* billion euros in ...

4.1 The different types of electric vehicles in France

***% electric vehicleselectric vehicles are equipped with an electric motor and a battery that is recharged using electricity from the grid. On the market today, they often have a range in excess of *** km, and more than meet the usual needs of urban travel. These vehicles produce no greenhouse gases (***). Extended-range electric vehicles: these vehicles are also equipped with an electric motor and a battery that pumps its energy from the electrical grid.when the battery is discharged, a gasoline-powered generator generates electricity, enabling the vehicle to cover the same distances as standard vehicles. Plug-in hybridshybrid vehicles are equipped with an internal combustion engine (***) and an electric motor, powered by batteries that recharge when the vehicle is in use. The advantage of the electric battery is a boost in power compared with traditional combustion-powered cars, and the ability to deactivate the combustion engine when stopped in traffic.

4.2 A wide range of electric vehicle prices

Thanks to a significant drop in prices and an increase in the variety of models available, electric vehicles have become more accessible to a wider public. They are designed to adapt to drivers' lifestyles. A comparison of the best electric cars and their features is provided in the table below.

Source: ****

Although the high cost of new electric cars is a major obstacle to their acquisition, several factors militate in favor of their development. The various forms of government financial aid and the savings made by using electricity rather than fossil fuels are arguments in favor of the expansion of the electric vehicle market.

4.3 Lower electricity prices in the years ahead

According to forecasts by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (***), the price curves for average battery-electric and gasoline-powered vehicles will tend to intersect by ****, with electric vehicle prices set to halve in just six years, in contrast to fossil-fuel vehicles, which would be on a stagnant or even upward slope in terms of tariffs. From **** onwards, electric vehicles will cost less than **,*** euros, thanks to a gradual fall in the production costs of lithium-ion batteries, and an acceleration in production capacity in terms of volume. leration in production capacity, with more and more production lines dedicated specifically to electric vehicles.

Price growth for medium-sized battery-electric and gasoline-powered cars Europe, ****-*****, in euros Source: ****

The study also suggests that by ****, battery-electric vehicles could account for almost all new vehicle sales in Europe. This is likely to happen one day, if not yet in ****, as carmakers have declared their intention to produce only vehicles with lower CO* emissions by ****[***].

4.4 The different types of assistance available for the purchase of electric vehicles

According to ecologie.gouv, in order to encourage the French population to travel in a cleaner way (***), the French government has put in place certain measures to assist the purchase of electric vehicles. These subsidies are aimed at the following categories:

passenger cars (***), with a gross vehicle weight not exceeding *.* tonnes; *,*-wheelers and quadricycles with electric motors; heavy goods vehicles, buses and coaches in categories N*, N*, M* and M* (***) that run on electricity or hydrogen; electrically-assisted bicycles; cargo bikes.

The subsidies are as follows:

Firstly, there is the conversion premium, which is available to both private individuals and professionals for the purchase of new or used vehicles, in exchange for scrapping an old vehicle. This assistance is available up to €*,*** for a combustion-powered vehicle, and up to €*,*** for an electric or rechargeable hybrid vehicle with a range of over ** km (***). Secondly, there is an additional bonus of up to €*,***, which can be granted to consumers who live or work in a low-emission zone (***). Secondly, the ecological bonus is a subsidy available to private individuals and professionals for the lease or purchase of an electric, hydrogen (***) vehicle: this bonus amounts to €*,*** for a car and €*,*** for vans. This bonus is increased ...

4.5 Battery production, a major challenge for electric mobility

As the battery is one of the most expensive components in an electric vehicle, its production is a crucial issue for automakers.

However, there are different strategies in the industry. While Tesla seeks to produce its batteries in-house at its Gigafactories, other players prefer to outsource battery production to some degree.this is the case, for example, with BMW, which wishes to retain control over the integration of cells into the battery pack, while working with Asian companies for cell production. Between now and ****, BMW is expected to purchase ** billion euros worth of cells from CATL and Samsung. The German automaker is nevertheless investing with these Asian manufacturers to develop cell production in Germany[***].

Renault has adopted a similar strategy, outsourcing battery production to the Chinese group Envision AESC at a plant on French soil.the Sino-Japanese manufacturer, having announced its plans for ****, is currently building a plant in Douai, with a capacity of * GWh. The plant is located within ElectriCity, the French carmaker's electric car production hub. Renault plans to produce more than ***,*** electric cars annually from ****, according to information released the previous year. However, AESC's * GWh of battery production will not be sufficient to meet this demand. Consequently, the ...

5.1 Current electric vehicle regulations and charging station standards

The French Ministry of Ecological Transition and Solidarity (***):

Renewal of public fleets: Article ** of the LTECV promotes the development of "clean" vehicles through the application of various decrees (***): decree no. ****-** of January **, **** on obligations for the purchase or use of low-emission vehicles by vehicle fleet managers, motor vehicle rental companies, cab operators and operators of chauffeur-driven transport vehicles ; decree no. ****-** of January **, ****, implementing the first paragraph of Article L. ***-* of the Environment Code, defining the criteria characterizing low-emission vehicles with a gross vehicle weight exceeding *.* tonnes; decree no. ****-** of January **, **** implementing Article L. ***-* of the Environmental Code, defining the criteria characterizing low-emission buses and coaches; decree no. ****-** of January **, **** taken for the application of articles L. ***-* of the Environmental Code and L. ***-* of the Highway Code defining the criteria characterizing low and very low emission vehicles under *.* tons. Clean mobility development strategy: the LTECV provides for the preparation of a clean mobility development strategy, a component appended to the multi-annual energy programming, published in Decree ****-**** of October **, ****.

In addition, this law also concerns charging stations, with the following points:

The Government has introduced a series of measures to promote the deployment of ...

5.2 The Mobility Orientation Act

In addition, the Loi d'Orientation des Mobilités, known as the "LOM", of December **, **** brings together immediate concrete measures and medium- to long-term objectives. objectives, enabling the government to set a precise target for reducing CO* emissions from transport, with a view to achieving carbon neutrality by ****.

Fleet electrification : private companies with fleets of over *** vehicles will be required to acquire a minimum proportion of low-emission vehicles (***) when renewing their fleets. The quota for EVs or PHEVs will be **% of vehicles renewed from January *, ****, **% from ****, **% from **** and **% from ****. For local authorities, the quota of EVs or PHEVs to be acquired is set at **% until June **, ****. This quota will rise to **% from July *, **** and **.*% from ****. Finally, the French government has already committed to acquiring **% low-emission vehicles when renewing its fleet Equipment of parking spaces: In application of the LOM law, parking spaces will have to be equipped with charge points or pre-equipped.-pre-equipment refers to pre-wiring (***).

6. Segmentation

• Tesla
• Nissan
• BMW Mottorrad
• Hyundai Motors
• Toyota
• LG Chem
• Symbio
• Saft
• Forsee Power
• Blue Solutions (Bolloré Groupe)
• Volvo Polestar
• Polycrystal
• MG Motor France
• Audi (Volkswagen Group)
• KIA
• Mini (BMW)
• Lexus France
• Cupra (Seat group)
• Mazda
• Smart
• DS Automobiles (Stellantis)
• Abarth
• Aiways Automobile
• Fisker
• Jeep
• Chevrolet
• Aston Martin
• Cadillac
• Stellantis (Groupe PSA et Fiat)
• Renault Groupe