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Summary of our market study
The global breakfast cereal market has been growing steadily, driven largely by consumer health awareness and the popularity of on-the-go meal options. With an estimated market value of 29.9 billion euros and a forecast CAGR of 2.9% from 2017 to 2023, the industry has seen a significant shift towards healthier products such as muesli and granola. In Belgium, market growth remained modest, with a CAGR of 1.1%, but is expected to accelerate to a CAGR of 2.5% between 2019 and 2023, with sales of 176.3 million euros.
The market is highly concentrated, with major players like Kellogg's losing market share to smaller brands, private labels and organic alternatives. Belgian consumers are increasingly looking for organic breakfast options, although availability and price are often limited. The market depended mainly on traditional grocery stores for distribution, with 96.2% of products sold in-store and 3.8% online. Regulatory frameworks in Belgium and the EU continued to maintain strict controls on food products, with labeling schemes such as the organic label and Nutri-Score influencing consumers' purchasing decisions. The segment was dominated by leaders such as Kellogg's with sales of 10 billion euros, Nestlé with 89.2 billion Swiss francs, and Jordan's with £180 million, while dedelhaize, Carrefour and Colruyt reported sales of 62.8 billion euros, 78.9 billion euros and 9.03 billion euros respectively.
Dynamics and demand in the Belgian breakfast cereals market
The Belgian breakfast cereals market, which includes nutritious options such as wheat, oats and corn with a variety of flavors, has matured with a mix of mainstays and emerging brands vying for consumers' attention. Major players like Kellogg's dominate the scene, holding over 40% of market share. However, the landscape is changing as Belgian consumers increasingly turn to organic and perceived healthier options such as granola and muesli, nibbling away at the dominance of traditional market leaders. This shift in preference is partly due to growing health awareness among consumers, and the willingness to pay more for premium products should accelerate market growth in the years ahead.
Despite these optimistic trends, the sector faces a major challenge: Belgians skip breakfast more often than their European counterparts. According to one study, only three quarters of Belgians regularly eat the first meal of the day, which is quite low compared to France and Italy, where over 90% of inhabitants eat breakfast every day. The main reasons given for not eating breakfast are lack of appetite and time constraints, underlining the demand for quick and convenient meal options. Emerging economies are driving the global breakfast cereal market, which was valued at nearly 30 billion euros, with projections suggesting steady growth over the next decade. This increase is fuelled by lifestyle transformations induced by urbanization and an expanding middle class looking for convenient meal solutions.
Trade figures reflect Belgium's strong presence on international markets, with exports up by over 60% in the last five years, outstripping imports which have also risen by over 50%. Belgium's main trading partners are neighboring France and the Netherlands, as well as Germany and the UK. In terms of product composition, children's cereals remain sweet, although recent reactions to criticism of high sugar content have led to recipe reforms, aimed at reducing sugar and salt in several brands. Breakfast options for adults are gradually shifting towards mueslis, granolas and oats, in response to the pro-health trend.
Main competitors in breakfast cereals In the breakfast cereals sector, several big names stand out, each with its own footprint in the market. This eclectic group of companies ranges from specialist cereal manufacturers to multi-purpose multinationals, as well as the influential retail chains that help put these products on consumers' tables.
- Kellogg's: The pioneering titan Recognized as a pioneering force in the breakfast cereal industry, Kellogg's has etched its name its name in the history books with a wide range of cereals that have delighted generations around the world. The brand's distinctive red logo is synonymous with breakfast time, with a product range that caters for a wide variety of palates and nutritional needs, although it has been facing increasing competition of late.
- Nestlé: a global giant with a local touch As a giant in the global food and beverage landscape, Nestlé's venture into breakfast cereals reflects its commitment to adaptability and nutritional innovation. With an extensive portfolio that goes beyond simple cereals, Nestlé stays in step with changing consumer trends, striking a balance between pleasure and health consciousness in its cereal offerings.
- Jordans: the health challenge Jordans has made a name for itself with products that emphasize natural ingredients and healthy eating, carving out a niche among those looking for more than just a tasty breakfast. Its success reflects a shift in consumer preferences, with more and more people turning to products that combine convenience and health benefits, such as granola and muesli.
- Delhaize: The gateway to breakfast choices This major retailer not only offers a varied selection of leading cereal and specialty brands, but also contributes to the competitive landscape with its own cereal brands. Delhaize's shelves testify to the retailer's adaptability and customer-centric approach to the breakfast segment, offering both upscale and affordable alternatives to cater to different market segments.
- Carrefour: The consumer-focused retailer Carrefour's extensive network, with its global reach into local communities, ensures that a variety of breakfast cereals are always at the consumer's fingertips. By focusing on product variety and accessibility, the retailer plays a crucial role in the distribution and availability of both conventional and health-focused cereal options.
- Colruyt: the value-driven competitor Renowned for its pragmatic approach to retailing, Colruyt boasts a strong market presence thanks to its focus on value for money. The retailer's intelligent positioning enables it to capture a substantial segment of the market.
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Summary and extracts
1 Market overview
1.1 Market definition and scope
Breakfast cereals are an agglomeration of nutrients, mainly cereals such as wheat, oats or corn, with natural or artificial flavoring and sugar.
With a plethora of products on offer, the breakfast cereal industry is dominated by very large players, such as Kellogg's, particularly in Belgium, where the group accounts for over 40% of the market. Over the past few years, however, new players have emerged on the market, taking market share from the two leading companies in Belgium, thanks in particular to strong demand for products labeled organic or perceived as healthier, such as granola or muesli.
However, the market has to contend with a growing lack of interest in breakfast, which is increasingly being missed by Belgians.
The following study includes ready-to-eat breakfast cereals, as well as derived products such as cereal bars.
1.2 Sustained global growth
Global sales of the breakfast cereals market amounted to €**.* billion in ****. Industry experts anticipate an annual CAGR of *.*% for the ****-**** period.
Breakfast cereals market value World, **** - ****, € billion CAGR: +*.*% Source: ****
The market is being driven by emerging economies, where there is a paradigm shift in customers' purchasing behavior and eating habits.
Rapid urbanization and a fast-growing middle-class population in these economies are driving lifestyle changes and increasing demand for on-the-go meal options. As cereals are considered to offer many health benefits and are easy to prepare, they are increasingly in demand from consumers around the world.the growing demand for quick meal options is driving the consumption of cereal bars and breakfast cookies. [***]
The United States is the world's leading consumer of breakfast cereals, as well as the leading producer. In fact, of all the companies in the sector, Kellogg, PepsiCo and General Mills have around **% of the total market share. In Europe, finally, sales in this market amounted to *.** billion euros in ****. [***] Europe and North America account for more than two-thirds of the market, with a **% share.
1.3 The Belgian market is growing slowly, but is set to accelerate
With estimated sales of €***.* million in ****, the market posted steady growth of *.*% over the ****-**** period.
Breakfast cereals market sales Belgium, **** - *****, in millions of euros CAGR ****-****: +*.*% CAGR ****-****: +*.*% Source: ****
In a highly concentrated market where a handful of players compete for consumers with a multitude of brands, the slow growth of the market can be partly explained by the multitude of competing offers
However, growing concern among Belgians about the impact of food products on health could drive market growth, driven by a premiumization of products with consumers willing to pay more. This justifies higher growth forecasts for the next * years.
1.4 Strong growth in trade
Foreign trade Belgium, ****-****, in millions of euros Source: ****
The code used for this section may include more than just breakfast cereals. It is code ****: Cereal products obtained by puffing or roasting (***), pre-cooked or otherwise prepared. [***]
While the coverage rate (***), there has been a sharp increase in the amounts in question. Over the last * years, exports have increased by **.**%, while imports have risen by **.**%.
Source: ****
Main export destination countries Belgium, ****, in millions of US$ Source: ****
Main countries of origin of imports Belgium, ****, in millions of US$ Source: ****
Belgium's main export partners are France and the Netherlands, which account for more than half of exports (***). They are followed by Germany, the UK, Spain and Poland.
2 Demand analysis
2.1 Belgians eat less breakfast than the European average
According to the independent survey carried out by Spark on behalf of Kellogg's, Belgians and their children eat breakfast less often than other Europeans.
Share of individuals eating breakfast daily Europe, ****, % (***) Source: ****
Among the * countries surveyed, Belgium ranks as the country with the second lowest breakfast consumption, after Spain. In fact, one Belgian in four does not eat breakfast on a daily basis. This proportion is significantly lower than in France and Italy (***). Among the reasons put forward by the individuals questioned in Belgium were lack of hunger and lack of time.
Reasons given for missing breakfast Belgium, ****, in Source: ****
The lack of time put forward by respondents is reflected in various surveys, with individuals spending much less time eating breakfast compared to other meals.
Average time spent preparing a meal Belgium, ****, in minutes Source: ****
Belgians therefore spend much less time preparing breakfast. One of the characteristics consumers expect from breakfast cereals is speed of preparation.
2.2 Consumption mainly takes place in the home, but varies according to several factors
Place of consumption
Breakfast is mainly eaten at home. Belgians were still particularly reluctant to eat breakfast outside the home.
Location of breakfast consumption Belgium, ****, % Source: ****
Age, but also gender and location, influence breakfast consumption
Consumption is primarily age-related. During adolescence, breakfast consumption becomes less regular, as the graph below shows. Encouraged by their parents, **% of *-* year-olds eat breakfast every day, compared with only **% of **-** year-olds.
Daily breakfast consumption by age Belgium, ****, % Source: ****
gender clearly influences breakfast consumption. Women take more time to eat the first meal of the day.
Breakfast consumption frequency by gender Belgium, ****, in Source: ****
**.*% of women surveyed eat breakfast at least * days a week, compared to **.*% of men.
Breakfast consumption frequency by geographic region Belgium, ****, in Source: ****
Finally, a breakdown by geographical area illustrates a difference in eating habits between Flanders and Wallonia, with Walloons proving to be significantly less consumptive than their neighbors.
In ****, **.*% of Walloons ate breakfast less than once a week, compared to *.*% of Flemings
2.3 Trend: Towards healthier products
Health concerns shape new eating habits
As more and more Belgians become health-conscious, cereal consumption is shifting towards healthier products.
Muesli and granola are benefiting most from this health trend, as the natural image of muesli and granola is bringing new, health-conscious consumers to the region.in this sense, muesli and granola recorded organic growth of *% in ****, with an increasing number of consumers turning to this type of product.[***]
Belgium's organic market is growing strongly
By way of illustration, the results of a market survey conducted by L'Apaq-w, shows how the Walloons and the inhabitants of Brussels perceive organic. [***]
According to the study, organic food is set to continue growing in the coming years. No less than * out of ** respondents say they want to consume more organic products in the future. This figure rises to **% for the **-** age group.
In Flanders, spending on organic food and drink rose from around €** million in **** to €*** million in ****. Similarly, the other regions also saw an increase in spending on organic food and drink over this period.
Source: ****
The case of breakfast cereals
As consumption of organic food increases rapidly, Belgians are also demanding organic breakfast cereals. However, this type of product is still ...
3 Market structure
3.1 Kellogg: a leader in decline
Source: ****
Changes in the market shares of the segment's main players show a trend towards deconcentration, with the smaller players gaining more ground.
For example, Kellogg Benelux, which accounted for almost half the market in ****, now represents "only" **.*% in ****. Similarly, Nestlé Belgilux has fallen from **.*% to **.*% in * years. Conversely, all the other brands listed above are on the rise, especially the other private labels (***), which have gone from *.*% to **% of the market. Jordan Cereals Ltd recorded the strongest growth, rising from *.*% to *.*% over the period.
3.2 A market in the hands of a small number of companies
Leading breakfast cereal companies Belgium, ****, in Source: ****
The Herfindahl-Hirschmann index calculated for this breakfast cereals sector in Belgium is **** points. It is obtained by summing the square of the market shares (***) of all the companies in the sector in question. It thus provides a relevant indicator of market concentration according to the following scale:
This shows that the Belgian breakfast cereals sector is highly concentrated. This concentration is due to the presence of the Kellogs company, which alone accounts for **.*% of the index value.
3.3 Production of Belgian organic cereals intensifies
Cereal farmland Belgium, **** - ****, in hectares Source: ****
Between **** and ****, the area of land devoted to organic cereal farming in Belgium increased steadily.
From **** to ****, the area of land cultivated with organic cereals in Belgium had increased by around *,*** hectares, reaching a total of **,*** hectares. This increase is part of the general rise in farmland dedicated to organic farming in Belgium.
Agricultural land dedicated to organic farming Belgium, **** - ****, in hectares and as % of total agricultural area Source: ****
We can thus observe that the agricultural area reserved for organic farming in Belgium is tending to expand, rising from *% to *.*% of the total cultivated area over the ****-**** period.
3.4 Market distribution channels
According to Euromonitor, **.*% of breakfast cereals were sold in conventional grocery stores, supermarkets and hypermarkets, with the remainder sold online (***), the latter percentage up *.* points on ****.
Source: ****
4 Offer analysis
4.1 Numerous brands vie for market share
Top breakfast cereal brands Belgium, ****, in Source: ****
There is a wide diversity of brands, with a very strong presence of private labels: Colruyt, Carrefour, Delhaize and other private labels together accounted for **.*% of the market in ****. Brand development has therefore been achieved at the expense of the historical players, in particular Kellogg's, which is steadily losing market share.
4.2 Product typology, composition and substitutes
Product typology
The different varieties of breakfast cereals can be divided into different sub-segments. First, there are cereals for children, which are generally very sweet. [***]
Cereals for adults include those based on muesli, a mixture of oats and other ingredients such as dried fruit or seeds. These are stagnating in terms of sales (***), unlike Granola, a mix of almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts, cashews and possibly oats and honey, which have seen the strongest market growth in recent years. Finally, flakes are usually found in adult cereal aisles, generally made from rice and wheat. [***]
Added to this list of products are cereal bars, which can be made from a wide variety of ingredients, and generally contain palm oil, such as those manufactured by Kellogg's Special K brand. In terms of ingredients, corn flakes are made mainly from corn, sugar, barley malt flavoring, salt and glucose syrup.
Hot cereals include products such as oatmeal, porridge and oatmeal, all of which are offered by Quaker.
Substitute products
Demand for breakfast cereals is limited by the enormous availability of alternatives. Most consumers prefer to consume eggs, smoothies, frozen waffles, yogurt, sausages, puddings and other traditional breakfasts, which are healthier and made with fresh ingredients.
Price and ...
4.3 Supply trends: New products adapted to new consumer demands
New perspectives
Although the health trend is shifting the adult breakfast cereal offer towards more muesli, granola and oats, at the expense of flakes and other breakfast cereals, children's breakfast cereals have remained relatively unchanged, with the exception of some recipe improvements
Breakfast cereals for children have remained relatively unchanged, with the exception of some recipe improvements. Indeed, after a few years of decline, manufacturers of children's breakfast cereals are constantly introducing new solutions to convince parents to continue buying cereals for their children.
However, children's breakfast cereals have been criticized by the media for their high sugar and salt content. [***] In response, manufacturers like Kellogg and Nestlé have constantly tried to improve their recipes.
For example, all Nestlé breakfast cereals are made from whole grains, and the company has been steadily reducing its sugar content for years. This war on sugar is set to continue and intensify. [***]
New products
Muesli and granola are the fastest-growing segments on the market. These therefore saw a number of concentrated new launches in ****.
Following Nestlé's successful launch of Cluster in ****[***] (***), Kellogg's, launched Kellogg Extra Creations in **** to take a share of sales from muesli and granola specialist Jordans and Quaker.
In retaliation, Quaker ...
5 Regulations
5.1 World Customs Nomenclature and Harmonized System
The Harmonized System is an international nomenclature for product classification. It enables participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis for customs purposes. At international level, the Harmonized System (***) for the classification of goods is a six-digit code system. [***]
The HS comprises around *,*** item/product descriptions, which appear as headings and subheadings, divided into ** chapters, grouped into ** sections. The six digits can be divided into three parts. The first two digits (***).
The Harmonized System was introduced in **** and has been adopted by most of the world's countries. It has undergone several changes in product classification. These changes are called revisions and came into force in ****, ****, ****, **** and ****. Detailed changes to each HS nomenclature are available on the links below.
To compile the foreign trade and market calculation statistics for this study, we have selected the following fields:
For foreign trade[***]
**** Puffed or roasted cereal products (***), pre-cooked or otherwise prepared.
5.2 Food remains tightly controlled in Belgium
Food can be contaminated or harmful to health when packaging displays misleading information. Aware of these risks, the Federal Public Health Service explains that, in line with European regulations, it has put in place a number of rules to provide a regulatory framework for the food industry. [***]
At European level, regulation n°***/**** lays down the European rules concerning food and beverages, and the main principles such as the free circulation of foodstuffs between EU countries. This implies that all European countries must adopt the same food regulations to protect their consumers. [***]
In Belgium, rules concerning the food industry are grouped together in the law of January **, ****. [***]
In addition, a number of special rules apply to products that may be present in a Belgian's kitchen:
- A preparation containing more than **% dry matter and at least *** grams of finished product per kilogram of preparation may be called a "jam". A distinction must be made between jam, marmalade and jelly. [***]
- Milk quality, denomination, additives and labeling are strictly controlled. [***]
5.3 Organic label and nutri-score
For a brand to obtain the Bio label on one of its products, it must meet the following conditions:
at least **% of the product's components come from organic farming in accordance with EU regulations; The product complies with the rules of the official inspection system; The product comes directly from the farmer or food processor in sealed packaging; The product bears the name of the producing farmer or food processor or distributor and the name or code of the inspection body.
In the European Union, the first regulation concerning organic farming came into force in **** (***). The new EU organic logo came into force on February *, ****.
The Nutri-Score summarizes a product's nutritional value in a single letter - from A (***).
This overall score includes positive parameters such as fiber, protein, fruit and nuts, as well as negative parameters such as kilocalories, saturated fatty acids, sugar and salt.
At a time when breakfast cereals are accused of containing elements that are too sweet for children, the signals sent by this score can prove decisive in the act of purchase.
6 Positioning the players
6.1 Segmentation
- Kellogg's
- Jordans
- Ahold Delhaize
- Carrefour Belgique
- Colruyt
- Nestlé Groupe
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the breakfast cereal market | Belgium
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