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1 Synthèse du marché
1.1 Introduction and purpose of the study
Some of the most controversial and debated topics nowadays are about the transition to a zero-emission world, especially about dealing with the means and the ways to achieve this transition.
In the world of transportation, electricity is now almost universally recognized as the main road to achieving the goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. This technology, however very useful, like all radical innovations, has its limits, related to the materials used, the production of the vehicles, the infrastructure required for their use, their real environmental impact, etc.
These limits will likely be overcome by technological innovations, given the massive investments that are now driving its development, but in the meantime, the climate situation continues to worsen and the world needs more immediate solutions.
Synthetic fuels are being presented precisely this way, as an outcome that can be deployed right away in existing and circulating vehicles, without the need to change either the existing infrastructure or the vehicles. Consequently, the efficient value chain that companies have created over the decades that internal combustion engines have been in use. In addition, synthetic fuels are also a solution for the kinds of transportation for which electrification is unthinkable (ex. air transport).
Despite this, even for this technology, there is no shortage of sticking points. In this case, they are related to the cost of production, lower energy efficiency, and the need for more renewable energy sources to make their use actually sustainable.
These points are fueling an increasingly heated debate, particularly since the European Commission announced that starting in 2035, not only electric and hydrogen cars will be sold, but also those that run only on e-fuel, with BEV proponents seeing e-fuel as a technology developed specifically by the oil lobby to slow down the electrification transition.
This report will provide an unbiased overview of the market and characteristics of e-fuel, based only on verified data, to uncover the real potential, and limitations, of this debated technology.
1.2 Worldwide expansion
The global synthetic fuels market was valued at $*.* billion in **** and is expected to reach $**.* billion by ****, growing at a CAGR of **.* percent from **** to ****.
The market value of synthetic fuels World, ****-****, US$ billion alliedmarketresearch
The market data, even though the market is still composed of a very limited number of players worldwide, are significant, both in terms of current value, given the relative newness of the industry, and projected growth.
Growth is driven by the potential role of these fuels in the transition to a zero-emission transportation system. While electrification and BEVs (***), and rare and potentially planet-damaging materials during ...
1.3 The NZE (Net Zero Emissions) scenario by 2050 in the transportation sector
The exponential increase in global CO* emissions in recent history has led to serious consequences for our planet. This rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions, largely due to fossil fuel use and deforestation, has had a significant impact on climate change, causing sea level rise, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity. These consequences threaten the survival of delicate ecosystems and the stability of world economies. Yearly CO* emissions World, ****-****, in billions of tons Ourworldindata For these very reasons, the Net Zero Emissions by **** Scenario (***), consistent with reductions assessed by the IPCC in its Sixth Assessment Report.[***] The transportation sector ...
2 Analyse de la demande
2.1 The demand: road transport
While the use of synthetic kerosene and synthetic ammonia in air and sea transport is generally accepted, mainly due to the absence of realistic alternatives, the use of e-petrol and e-diesel in road transport is particularly debated [***].
To offer an unbiased perspective on the topic we will include both the assumptions made by the E-fuel Alliance, the body created to promote their adoption, and the views of organizations opposed to their widespread use, such as Transport&Enviroment.
The position of pro-synthetic fuel organizations [***]:
The issue:
There are currently more than *** million motor vehicles (***). Even in the case of the high uptake ...
2.2 The question: aviation
In ****, aviation accounted for more than * percent of global energy-related CO* emissions, growing faster in recent decades than roads, railways, or shipping. With countries returning from Covid-** lockdowns in ****, aviation emissions reached about *** Mt, recovering nearly a third of the decline from **** levels seen in ****. Numerous technical measures related to low-emission fuels, improvements in aircraft and engines, operational optimization, and demand restraint solutions are needed to achieve the Net Zero Emissions Scenario by **** - to curb the growth of emissions and ultimately reduce them in this decade. [***]
Direct CO* emissions from aviation in the Net Zero Emissions Scenario World, ****-****, ...
2.3 The demand: maritime transport
In ****, international shipping accounted for about * percent of global energy-related CO* emissions. In the same year, emissions from the international shipping sector grew by * percent, recovering from the sharp decline in **** to reach **** levels. To adhere to the Net Zero Emissions Scenario by ****, total emissions will need to remain stable until ****, despite an expected increase in activity, and then begin to decline by *% per year until **** (***). [***]
Direct CO* emissions from shipping in the Zero Net Emissions Scenario World, ****-*****, Mt Iea
Technological innovation, supportive policies, and collaboration throughout the value chain are needed to promote the adoption of low- or zero-emission ...
2.4 General interest in e-fuels
Google trends searches can give us a hint about the public's interest in efuels technology. To perform this analysis, after checking if similar terms (***) show a similar trend, the terms "efuels" were chosen for the worldwide analysis and "synthetic fuels" for the Italian-level analysis.
The analysis confirms the previously stated hypothesis that this topic has become of general interest as a result of the European Commission's decision to allow the production of internal combustion engine cars after **** through the use of these fuels, first announced via a post on the Twitter profile of European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans on March ...
3 Structure du marché
3.1 A market in its infancy
As mentioned earlier, synthetic fuel production plants, either already in existence or under construction, are located mainly in Germany, although the first one to go into operation - in **** - is located in Iceland.
Most of the projects that are emerging and will emerge in the coming years are spin-offs of companies operating in complementary sectors or seeking to diversify their offerings. Below are all the projects recognized as of April **** with the companies involved [***]:
Germany:
Synhelion Solar Fuels: Synhelion INERATEC Pioneer Plant: Ineratec CAC Synfuel Plant: Chemieanlagenbau Chemnitz GmbH (***) Next GATE: H&R Group, Mabanaft GmbH & Co. KG, P*X-Europe ...
3.2 The value chain
3.3 Distribution, one of the strengths of synthetic fuels
Among the obstacles to the development of electric vehicles, there is certainly the lack of infrastructure needed to charge them. Currently, charging of electric vehicles takes place mainly in homes and workplaces, but consumers increasingly expect similar services, simplicity and autonomy to those offered by traditional vehicles.
In Europe, there are **,*** fast public charging points in ****. Besides that, slow public charging points are another ***,***.
Charging points for electric vehicles Europe, ****-****, in thousands Iea
Globally, about *.* million public charging points were installed in ****, one-third of which were fast charging stations. During the year, nearly ***,*** charging points were added, a higher number ...
4 Analyse de l'offre
4.1 An alternative fuel
Fuels are materials that react with other substances to release energy. That energy can be released through heat or workforce. Fuels can also be used as raw materials or reagents in various industries, such as fossil fuels in the chemical industry. The rapid cost reduction of solar and wind technologies has stimulated interest in the electrification of end sectors. This is now seen as a pathway to decarbonize the global economy. Despite direct electrification being difficult for some sectors, indirect electrification could be achieved through the electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen and the synthesis of storable and transportable fuels. EFuels, ...
4.2 The prices
Currently, the production cost of efuels is around **€/l, about *** times higher than regular gasoline prices. This cost is due to the current limited production and the high cost of energy, especially if it is renewable [***]. However, this could change:
As more eFuels are gradually added to conventional fuels and production costs are reduced through economies of scale, eFuels will be affordable for consumers at every stage of market expansion. While it is estimated that in **** production costs for a liter of eFuel with a * percent blending rate with conventional fuels will be between €*.** and €*.**, by **** they could fall to values ...
4.3 The actual emissions
After the European Commission decided to allow the production of ICE cars even after ****, the year by which it had previously set a stop for them, a debate has been fueled as heated as it had been regarding the stop itself.
Transport&Enviroment commissioned a study to verify the true properties of e-fuels. They considered three different types of efuels:
E-fuel * is composed of *** percent paraffinic hydrocarbons, which is a mixture of hydrocarbon chains without ring compounds such as benzene (***). Future e-fuels are likely to be primarily paraffinic blends since these are the chemical compounds produced during the Fischer-Tropsch process. This ...
5 Règlementation
5.1 The regulation
In Europe, the law that defined a stop to the sale of cars with internal combustion engines by **** is ****/****. A few days after the law passed it was announced that an agreement had been reached with Germany to continue the sale of these cars with the introduction of the use of synthetic fuels; however, this agreement is not yet official and will have to go through the normal legislative process to become operational.
In America, the states that have passed similar legislation to stop sales of ICE cars are California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington. [***]
Other laws ...
6 Positionnement des acteurs
6.1 Segmentation
Startups and companies specializing in the production of eFuels:
Large international companies investing in plants:
- Synhelion
- Ineratec
- Chemieanlagenbau Chemnitz GmbH (CAC)
- H&R GmbH & Co KgaA
- Atmosfair
- Aramco
- ArcelorMittal
- Engie
- Repsol
- Infinium
- Liquid Wind
- Norsk e-Fuel
- Nordic Electrofuel AS
- Siemens
- Arcadia eFuels
- Carbon Recycling International
- NEOM Green Hydrogen Company
- HIF Global
- Abel Energy
- ThyssenKrupp
- Porsche
- Enel green power S.p.a.
- Johnson Matthey Group
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