The modular construction market - Germany (2023)

1.2 The global market for modular construction

Modular construction is part of the wider construction industry, where it can be both a by-product and a substitute. In fact, modular construction offers several advantages in addition to reducing the risk associated with construction work:

At a global level, the modular construction market is estimated to account for around *% of total global construction output (***), as reported by Grand View Research. According to Markets and Markets, the global market for modular production was estimated at around USD ** billion in **** and is expected to reach around USD *** billion by ****.

Global market for modular construction Worldwide, **** - ****, in USD billion Source: ****

The statistics show the import countries of prefabricated buildings in **** in billion euros, based on HS code **.**. Germany leads the list with an import volume of *.** billion euros, followed by the USA with *.** billion euros, the United Kingdom with *.** billion euros, China with *.** billion euros and Norway with *.** billion euros.

Importing countries of prefabricated buildings (in connection with HS code **.** Worldwide, ****, in € billion Source: ****

In terms of exports of prefabricated buildings, China tops the list with an export volume of €*.** billion. It is followed by the Netherlands with €*.** billion, the Czech Republic with €*.** billion, Estonia with €*.** billion and the USA with €*.** ...

1.3 A German market that has been growing for almost 10 years

The demand for prefabricated houses in Germany continues to rise, with almost a quarter of all building permits for detached and semi-detached houses in **** issued for prefabricated timber houses. According to the Bundesverband Deutscher Fertigbau, this is the highest proportion ever recorded, with an increase from **.*% in **** to **.*% in ****.

Share of prefabricated houses in building permits for detached and semi-detached houses Germany, **** - ****, in % Source: ****

The turnover trend in the prefabricated construction industry in Germany is positive. In ****, turnover amounted to *.** billion euros. In the following year ****, turnover rose to *.** billion euros. This corresponds to an increase of around *.*%. These figures illustrate the steady growth of the prefabricated construction industry in the period under review.

Turnover development in the prefabricated construction industry Germany, **** - ****, in billion euros Source: ****

2.1 Profile of homeowners in Germany

Destatis, the national statistical office in Germany, conducted a survey on the type of households. In total, there were around **.* million households in rural areas. To be more precise:

**.** million one-person households **.** million two-person households *.** million households with * or more people

The following chart shows the proportion of these households that own their home, tenant or subtenant.

Ownership rate by federal state (***)

Source: ****

2.2 Long-term development of building permits

The statistics show the number of building permits for apartments in Germany from January **** to March ****. Over the course of this period, a general trend can be seen that the number of building permits is tending to decrease, despite some fluctuations.

In January ****, a total of **,*** building permits were issued. This figure rose to **,*** in March ****, which is the highest figure in this period. In May ****, the number fell to **,*** and remained relatively stable at **,*** building permits until July ****.

As **** progressed, the statistics showed a steady decline in building permits. In September ****, there were **,***, in November **** there were **,*** and in January **** the number fell further to **,***.

In March ****, there was a brief increase to **,*** building permits, but the general downward trend continued in May **** with **,*** and in July **** with **,*** building permits.

The lowest figures in the statistics were recorded towards the end of the period under review. In September ****, the number of building permits fell to **,***, in November **** to **,*** and in January **** to **,***. In March ****, the number rose slightly to **,***.

In summary, the statistics show that the number of building permits for apartments in Germany declined overall in the period under review, albeit with occasional increases and fluctuations. The reasons for ...

2.3 High land prices that encourage construction in rural areas

The price index for building land is an important indicator for the development of building land costs. This index shows the price changes for building land over time. The data above shows a steady increase in the price index from **** to ****. In ****, the index was set to ***. Since then, the index has risen continuously, indicating rising building land prices. In ****, the price index reached a value of ***.*, which means that the cost of building land has risen by **.*% compared to ****. The rising building land prices can be attributed to various factors, including increasing demand, limited availability of building land and rising construction costs.

Price index for building land Germany, **** - ****, index Source: ****

However, these prices have risen sharply in recent years, especially after ****, as the building land price index below shows. Such a development is due in particular to the following factors the renewed interest of Germans in building their own homes in an attempt to escape the high real estate prices in the cities. [***]

2.4 Reduction in 20-year mortgage interest rates, which favors construction

Finally, it may be interesting to look at the **-year lending rates, as they represent the financing costs of households for long-term projects. However, the latter has never been this low for around fifteen years (***), which should make it possible to increase household consumption and investment in real estate.

Development of interest rates for **-year mortgages

Source: ****

2.5 Regional demand

The percentage of prefabricated buildings in the various German federal states varies greatly, with Baden-Württemberg having the highest percentage at **% and Bremen the lowest at *.*%.

Share of prefabricated construction

Source: ****

3.1 Market organization and dynamics

Thefollowing chart provides an overview of the market concentration, but also of the position in relation to large construction companies in Germany. The statistics present the number of companies in the precast construction sector in Germany, sorted by company size, for the year ****. ** companies were registered in this economic sector, each of which employed between ** and ** people in ****.

Number of companies in precast construction in Germany by company size Germany, ****, in number Source: ****

The statistics show the turnover of the ten largest construction companies in Germany in ****, with Hochtief AG at the top with an impressive turnover of **.** billion euros. Strabag from Cologne follows with a turnover of *.** billion euros. Ed. Züblin achieved a turnover of * billion euros, while Goldbeck achieved a turnover of *.* billion euros. Zech Group SE and the VINCI Deutschland Group achieved sales of *.** billion euros and *.** billion euros respectively. Max Bögl generated * billion euros, Käfer Isoliertechnik *.* billion euros and Leonhard Weiss *.** billion euros. Bauer AG brought up the rear with a turnover of *.*** billion euros. Some of these companies are also active in the field of modular construction,such as Cadolto Modulbau, a subsidiary of Zech Group SE.

The ** largest construction companies in Germany ...

3.2 The production system and its advantages

The production of modular buildings consists of the assembly of entire buildings in factories from prefabricated modules, which are then placed on foundations. According to IFS, production is carried out in local factories to create entire apartment block units or building site modules. The interior fittings are also manufactured locally, produced on a large scale and then transported to the construction site and assembled there.

This production process enables savings of **% on labor costs and delivery times. Factory production also reduces air and noise pollution on the construction site and increases worker safety.

Although the data refers to the French market, the website"Mon Devis" provides interesting information on the production of modular buildings. According to the website, which uses the example of a "kit house", the labor cost share is estimated at **% of the total construction cost. This is compared to **% to **% of the total cost of building a conventional house.

3.3 Significantly faster assembly

Sales in the modular construction market are made by modular builders directly to customers, who can be individuals, companies or municipalities. Once the customer has obtained a building permit, they can hire a modular construction company to assemble the components directly on site after they have been manufactured. This process is usually quick, as delivery times are two to three times shorter and construction time is significantly reduced, taking just a few days on site. [***]

4.1 Modular designs adapted to the customer's needs

There are different types of modular construction, depending on the need.

The best-known modular constructions are prefabricated buildings, which have been the forerunners of modular construction since the ****s, modular buildings consisting of rectangular modules, and sandwich panels, which consist of a steel frame on which prefabricated panels are installed.

According to Usine Nouvelle, there are different types of modular construction depending on the sector:

Residential buildings, either individual or divided, most of which are built with wooden panels. They can accommodate one or more families. [***] Modular constructions for the construction industry, such as modular construction offices (***), site offices and site trailers. Modular constructions for events, such as temporary sanitary facilities or prefabricated reception rooms (***). Modular constructionsfor the medical sector, such as external laboratories, blood donation centers and even doctors' surgeries. Modular constructionsfor the tertiary sector, such as extensions to sales outlets, administrative offices, meeting rooms, schools and storage points for goods.

There are also a variety of solutions for recycled modular constructions, where habitable containers are converted into schools, restaurants, retail outlets and other social housing.

One example of this is the Technical University of Rhineland-Westphalia, where the Kleusberg company realized the manufacture and construction of a steel extension thathas ...

4.2 Prices that vary depending on the material used

To determine the average price of a modular home in Germany, we can use data from Haus Journal, which occasionally publishes the construction costs of its turnkey prefabricated home models. The following values are listed as the price per square meter:

*.*** euros[***] *.*** euros[***]

For a house extension, the website gives a construction value of *** euros per square meter [***].

In practice, the price of a prefabricated house varies greatly and most models cost around ***,*** euros. However, it is possible to build a more luxurious prefabricated house, the price of which can exceed ***,*** euros[***].

An analysis of the prices offered by ELK Fertighaus confirms this price range.

To understand the different prices, a distinction must be made between the three types of services offered by construction companies:

The original price The price for surface finish The turnkey price

The lowest prices (***) usually include a **% surcharge to make the property turnkey.

4.3 A construction sector that is evolving through its supply and the available technologies

Technological advances According to IFS, more than half of construction companies will be using *D printing and modular construction technologies by ****. Robotics will also help workers with repetitive tasks, such as SAM*** from Construction Robotics. *D printing: a study by Larsen Partners exploring the potential of *D printing in construction shows that there are multiple opportunities, both for structural and wall building. There are currently ** *D construction projects in Europe, but very few of them will actually be inhabited. Such technology could pose a real threat in the medium term. Prefabrication and prefabrication of volume constructions: This technique was developed in Singapore and consists of assembling the modules of apartments (***). Expansion of the range The regulations introduced in Germany, which currently favor eco-friendly housing, have also encouraged the creation of greener modular homes. Homes with a positive energy balance have been developed: they generate more energy than they consume. This progress has been made possible through the use of several technologies: Efficient thermal insulation. Energy generation through the installation of solar panels Intelligent energy consumption control (***). Energy storage to reduce dependence on the electricity grid. Haas Fertighaus has developed its own model for a prefabricated house with a positive energy balance. Diversification ...

5.1 Current control

Building in Germany means complying with a large number of standards, of which around *,*** are currently defined in Focus. As a result, construction costs have risen by **% in around ten years. A significant part of this increase is due to the implementation of environmental standards (***), which alone have increased prices by **%.

Consequences of the energy saving laws

The **** EnEV has the following consequences for the construction of new buildings, as described by Immonet, a stricter legal framework:

These must use **% less energy than the **** minimum values Heating requirements must be reduced by **% by improving insulation Homes must also be equipped with renewable energy generation systems. Buyers can refuse this, but must then improve the efficiency of their thermal insulation by **% Consequences of the Energy Act for construction

The German Sustainable Building Council(***) summarizes the consequences of the Building Emissions Act, which will be valid until **** and was passed in ****:

All new buildings built from **** and all buildings up to **** must have a CO*-neutral rating. This means that they must produce as much energy as they consume. If the CO* emissions of the apartments exceed the set limits, the owner must pay additional taxes. However, they can renovate their home to ...

5.2 Nomenclature used in the study

The Harmonized System (***), which is used by the United Nations to record its international trade data, has almost **,*** different codes, each representing a specific product. The HS code used in this study is as follows **.**: prefabricated buildings The prodcom codes that differ from the nomenclature used by EU customs are as follows: **.**.**.Z* : prefabricated buildings of plastic, cement or aluminum. **.**.**.** : prefabricated wooden buildings.

6.1 Segmentation

• Bien-Zenker GmbH
• Danwood S.A.
• ELK Fertighaus GmbH
• Schwörer Haus KG
• ALHO Systembau GmbH
• Wolf System GmbH
• Steico SE
• Adlerhaus GmbH
• Keitel Haus GmbH
• NORDHAUS Fertigbau GmbH
• Meisterstück-Haus